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April 22, 23: Word on TheStreet, Predictions, and more

Participants on April 22 included host Brenda Buttner, Gary B. Smith, Adam Lashinsky, Dave Kansas, Jonathan Hoenig and Dan Colarusso. The transcript is unedited, and phonetic spellings are indicated with (ph).

BRENDA BUTTNER, THESTREET.COM: Hi, everyone, I`m Brenda Buttner and you are connected to TheStreet.com.

Boy, it was another buckle-your-seatbelt week for the stock market. More of the same ahead, let`s get the word on the Street.

With us from TheStreet.com, financial Web site Editor in Chief Dave Kansas; Editor Dan Colarusso; contributor Jonathan Hoenig, who also runs the Capitalist Pig Asset Management; and from Washington, D.C., "Chartman" Gary B. Smith; plus in Chicago, Silicon Valley columnist Adam Lashinsky.

Welcome, everyone.

Well, be careful not to blink, chances are you`ll miss a major market move. On the heals of the Friday Massacre of April 14th, look at the Nasdaq last week. Monday and Tuesday set records on the plus side, add it up, a 14% gain, not so good, though, for the rest of the short week with the Nasdaq giving some back on Wednesday and Thursday.

Dave, the question on everyone`s mind, it`s more easily asked than answered, but what next?

DAVE KANSAS, FINANCIAL WEB SITE EDITOR IN CHIEF, THESTREET.COM: I think we`re not out of the woods at all, especially for Nasdaq and especially for the smaller stocks and the Internet stocks. You didn`t really see much bounce in a lot of the Internet names and I think we`re going to see more trouble in Nasdaq next week. Some of the Dow stocks might do better, but the fact of the matter is that people who are breathing a sigh of relief, say hey, everything`s fine,...

BUTTNER: Right.

KANSAS: ... everything`s OK, they`re wrong. I mean this market has really got to fight through a lot of pessimism and a lot of emotion. We`ve got a lot of reports coming out in the week, ...

JONATHAN HOENIG, CONTRIBUTOR, CAPITALISTIC PIG ASSET MANAGEMENT: And, Dave, ...

KANSAS: ... economics reports, and we`ve got Greenspan speaking and I think people still think this economy is too hot and there should be more rate hikes...

COLARUSSO, EDITOR, THESTREET.COM: ... and we`re in trouble.

HOENIG: Dave...

COLARUSSO: And what you saw today was kind of over the -- over the week, you saw collective quality to the blue-chips, you saw all these Dow stocks go up. This is -- people don`t want to be in cash, they want to stay in the market but they`re not going to stay in the Internet stocks, they`re not going to stay in any of those ...

BUTTNER: But the -- but is it ...

HOENIG: How can the blue-chips be a (INAUDIBLE) to quality when, you know, the major indices are down on the year? You know people who are holding longs position are down money in the stock market with interest rates rising, with commodity prices firming and people are down serious money.

BUTTNER: Gary, Gary.

GARY B. SMITH, CHARTMAN: Well, you know I`d love -- yeah, go ahead.

BUTTNER: Actually, you sold off completely but before the two-day record gain in the Nasdaq. Do you have any regrets about that or are you happy that you`re completely out?

SMITH: Well, I`ll tell you what, Brenda, I wish -- I -- yeah, I mean, I would have loved to have had the gains of Monday and Tuesday, but do I regret it? I honestly do not. But here`s my philosophy: I think you should always take a position as a trader or investor of placing yourself in the highest reward lowest risk. I thought the risk of downside on Monday was very high ...

BUTTNER: Mm-hmm.

SMITH: ... and I didn`t want to take that risk. Could I have been in the move? Yes, I wish I had been nimble enough to buy Monday morning, sell Tuesday afternoon. I`m just not that good, so I`d rather sit out that, as great as it was, and miss any more downside, which, I have to agree with Dave, I think there is going to be more downside.

BUTTNER: Adam, it seems like in tech stocks there`s like three tiers. There`s the blue-chips, the Cisco (CSCO), and there`s the dot-bombs on the bottom and in between there`s the B2B all the rest. The question is what happens to them?

ADAM LASHINSKY, SILICON VALLEY COLUMNIST: Well what happens to the -- to the all the rest, well, all the rest are all but finished, Brenda.

BUTTNER: Hmm.

LASHINSKY: And because you know all the rest, as Gary and I are going to talk about later, there`s just not much there there. Now the real problem, though, as we saw toward the end of the week, to pick up on Dave Kansas` theme, is that there is a problem in the blue-chips as well. I listened to Microsoft`s conference call at the very end of the week...

BUTTNER: Right.

LASHINSKY: ...on Thursday and it wasn`t good. The tone really couldn`t have been worse from the bluest of the blue-chip tech stocks.

SMITH: And, Adam, don`t you think that almost -- let`s just say Microsoft opens Monday morning and it`s down at a headstand. Don`t you think that`s going to drag down stuff like IBM and Hewlett-Packard and some of the other boxmakers?

LASHINSKY: I`ve been wrong about getting off a conference call at the end of the week and thinking about where things will go in the following week, but that`s...

SMITH: Yeah.

LASHINSKY:...a long-winded way of saying, Gary, yes, I think you`re right. How can you be optimistic about the rest of tech when Microsoft isn`t optimistic?

SMITH: Yeah, exactly.

BUTTNER: Jonathan, you make a living managing money. Where are you putting yours?

HOENIG: You know, Brenda, I`ve been short for much of the move down and I still remain not only net short in my position but a lot of cash on hand. I mean, the point is that people -- we were saying, well, wait till the earnings come out. OK, earnings are coming out and the stocks are getting marked down on the good news of, ...

BUTTNER: Intel...

HOENIG: ...in many cases, for them be the earnings. And what you have is a situation where this the good news is already priced into these stocks and we will see what for many investors will be a huge, I don`t know, a flood of cold water when they realize that stocks are beating their earnings estimates but still getting marked down in the market. That`s going lead the indices lower and Microsoft, as now a new Dow component, is going to lead the way.

KANSAS: And I think, you know, one of the things...

SMITH: Hey, Jonathan.

KANSAS: ...one of the things we saw, just real quick, Gary, was I think Monday and Tuesday by the dips. You heard, I mean ...

BUTTNER: Right.

KANSAS: ...my friends...

COLARUSSO: Yeah.

KANSAS: ...e-mailed me and said, oh, I`m buying the dips. I`m buying this.

BUTTNER: Well, it makes sense.

KANSAS: It`s going to take a long time to break that...

BUTTNER: Yes.

KANSAS: ...and what you see is that there`s...

LASHINSKY: Yeah.

KANSAS: ...a big chunk of people not afraid.

BUTTNER: Yeah.

KANSAS: They`re not afraid and to buy those dips...

LASHINSKY: Yeah. Well, ...

KANSAS: ...and until they get burned, we`re going to keep seeing people buying those dips.

LASHINSKY: Brenda, I think what`s particularly relevant is what Dave just said. It was his friends who were buying the dip. I think it was a lot of individuals and not...

HOENIG: Yeah.

LASHINSKY: ...not knocking...friends.

(LAUGHTER)

SMITH: Really, really...

(CROSSTALK)

BUTTNER: Gary?

LASHINSKY: Professional investors were surprised...

SMITH: Yeah, yeah.

LASHINSKY: ...I think.

BUTTNER: Yes.

SMITH: I wanted to ask Jonathan a question. Jonathan, did you with those tremendous moves Monday and Tuesday and you know, rallies -- bear market rallies are furious, did you cover any of your short positions...

HOENIG: Well, you know...

SMITH: ...or were you scared out of your shorts?

HOENIG: That`s a good question, Gary. I actually got stopped out on a couple of short positions, which, you know, any investor should be trading with stops and I don`t understand why people don`t. You know part of making money in the markets is controlling your risk...

LASHINSKY: Right, absolutely.

HOENIG: ...which is why, I mean, Gary, to get to what you were saying, which is why I am mortified when I hear of individuals saying, well, Cisco`s on sale and I`ve doubled down at Cisco and it`s 20, 30,...

LASHINSKY: Yeah.

HOENIG: ...40% of their overall position, you know, their overall portfolio. That`s just not good risk management.

BUTTNER: Now, Dave, both...

LASHINSKY: I agree.

BUTTNER: ... Jonathan and Gary are short. That`s a dangerous game, though, for individual investors to play, isn`t it, unless you`re very sophisticated in this market?

SMITH: Well, yeah, I mean ...

KANSAS: Actually, Gary can probably speak to this better than I can but I think...

SMITH: Well, I...

KANSAS: ...people can`t -- you just shouldn`t just suddenly say like, oh, I`m going to be learning how to be short in a market like this...

BUTTNER: Yeah, right.

KANSAS: ...but it`s very volatile right now and people can get burned very quickly.

HOENIG: Yeah, but what about the opportunity for some people taking -- their asset allocation on some basic level? I mean now maybe is the time to look for some different asset models that perform negatively or not quarterly. They should say of the stock market, you know, something that perhaps now performs at the time when the stock market`s weak.

BUTTNER: Gary.

SMITH: Well, I would say for 99% of the people watching, going short is probably not something you want to do, but I wrote a column that appeared in TheStreet.com on Thursday about going short. For someone that is really into the market that wants to learn, I think, it is a valid way to go and you can do it with a lot less risk than you think.

BUTTNER: All right, gentlemen, the final word on TheStreet this week. Let`s stick around, everyone`s back with predictions in a bit.

First though, it`s a stock you probably own, one of the biggies, where`s it going? The Chartman and Mr. Fundamental weigh in when TheStreet.com returns.

Stay with us.

BUTTNER: I bet you own it and I bet you want to know where it`s going. Yes, Cisco, one of the most widely held stocks is one of the most talked about, too. Unpredictable these days just like the market, but does that scare the Chartman? There he is in Washington, Chartman Gary B. Smith. And who would the Chartman be without Mr. Fundamental, also known as Adam Lashinsky in Chicago? Neither Adam nor Gary owns any of the stocks we`re talking about in this segment.

Hey, guys.

LASHINSKY: Hello, Brenda.

SMITH: Hi, Brenda.

BUTTNER: So, Cisco, perhaps the tech blue-chip. It`s a staple in so many portfolios...

SMITH: Mm-hmm.

BUTTNER: ...but should it be? Gary, what do the charts say?

SMITH: Well, you`re right, Brenda, it`s like an icon at this point and I walk a dangerous line here because whenever I come out and say anything negative about these icons, whether it was Microsoft a few weeks ago or Cisco today, people get all in an uproar. But you know, I just look at the charts and I just try to make money using the charts and Cisco is not in very good shape right now. Quite frankly, you have a stock here that, you know, we`ve talked in the earlier segment about a bear market rally. Cisco made a huge move ...

BUTTNER: Hmm.

SMITH: ...on Monday and Tuesday and then it was the Foreman-Ali fight in Zaire many, many years ago where Cisco has just punched itself out. It has nothing left. What it did was it hit the top trend line of that downward trend and it just rolled around. And now, I`ll tell you what, it looks like you`re going to have your chance, if you want to buy Cisco, you`re going to have a chance to do it in the 50s, I think, probably in the -- really the next few days starting next week.

BUTTNER: Isn`t -- Adam, isn`t Cisco quality with a capital Q though? I mean Gary`s saying that there`s nothing left in a company that has so much potential.

LASHINSKY: That part he`s saying based on his looking at the chart and it`s, Brenda, absolutely meaningless. Yes, this is...

SMITH: Thank you.

LASHINSKY: ...quality -- You`re welcome, Gary -- This is quality with a capital Q. There is nothing wrong with Cisco. Having said that, valuation will begin to matter for absolutely everybody and this is a company that continues to trade well in excess of three times its earnings growth rate on a forward P/E basis so finally the company may see its shopping spree slowed down by acquisitions. I`m only scared about the valuation, nothing else about Cisco.

BUTTNER: Gary, PlanetRx, an ailing stock, huh? Down about 75% year to date.

SMITH: Well, this stock is past ailing, it`s almost dead at this point. We show PlanetRx`s chart not to pick on PlanetRx specifically but only because there are a lot of charts like this right now. There will be a lot of charts like this and I want to tell the viewers do not be tempted with charts like this at the bottom because say, wow, PlanetRx $3. Maybe, you know, I`ll make a 1,000% because what is more likely to happen with something like this is PlanetRx is not going to go to $10 or $20. It`s going to go to $1 or zero.

BUTTNER: Mm.

SMITH: So stay away from stocks like this that have absolutely no life signs.

BUTTNER: Adam, online retailer. Nobody wants them. Need I say more?

LASHINSKY: Yeah, we -- you`re right, Brenda. We chose this for a fundamental reason as well and that is that PlanetRx is trading near, not at, but near its cash balance. And a lot of people think, gee, if a stock gets down to near its cash balance it`s probably an easy buy because, after all, you can get all that cash. These come down to their cash value for a reason: they`re sick. One of the examples of this was that the CEO of this company took off quickly less than a few weeks ago.

BUTTNER: Mm.

LASHINSKY: It has a huge burn rate, the cash decreased from the end of the year to the end of the first quarter by $41 million. And finally, the other assumption when a company gets this cheap is, well, somebody`ll just buy it. Well, where`s the buyer? I don`t think that anyone really is going to want it and if they do, an investor would have to ask themselves, do I want this stock. You can make that decision then.

SMITH: Yeah, right, I -- you know, Adam, I think this is like Boston Market or Boston Chicken...

BUTTNER: Mm.

SMITH: ...whatever it was called years ago. People thought, my gosh, it can`t go to zero. It went to zero.

LASHINSKY: Big difference being there`s no -- there`s nothing fundamentally wrong, but still, you`re right, Gary.

SMITH: Right.

BUTTNER: All right, Gary and Adam, thanks.

And stay with us, though, because after this, predictions. Any good news ahead? You need to hear these.

Stay with us.

BUTTNER: Welcome back.

So what do you do, buy or sell? From most of the experts you get carefully worded on the one hand, on the other hand not hear. Listen up, here`s what our team says will happen and what it means to you.

Back with us from TheStreet.com Web site, Dave Kansas, Dan Colarusso, Jonathan Hoenig. In Washington, Gary B. Smith, and in Chicago, Adam Lashinsky.

Dave, you`re up first.

KANSAS: The Nasdaq is going to retest the lows that it hit during the big crash of April 14th and it is going to happen soon, this week. This coming week the Nasdaq is going to start testing those lows again and I think it`s going to be nasty.

LASHINSKY: What`s the catalyst, Dave?

KANSAS: Catalyst I think is that people sense that this, the bounceback early last week, didn`t stick.

BUTTNER: Mm-hmm.

KANSAS: It didn`t stick and people are going to get more and more worried. There`s going to be more emotion in the market and people worry about Greenspan speaking and they`re going to be worrying about the economic reports ... coming out this coming week and it`s going to be strong. And I think there`s be more and more talk of a 50 basis point -- 50 basis point interest rate hike.

SMITH: Well, are the friends ...

HOENIG: Where does -- where`s the money go?

KANSAS: The money go, I think people are going to start going to cash.

BUTTNER: Really?

KANSAS: I think with the first wave they`re going to the blue-chips. We`re seeing that right now. Like you were saying earlier in the show, that`s not such a great place to be and I think people are going to start thinking about cash, maybe even other assets.

SMITH: Dave, I have a question for you. You -- you`re -- you are amongst the common man. You know the man on the street better than I do.

KANSAS: I am the most -- I am very common, very common.

SMITH: Still don`t ... You have more friends than I do, let me put it that way. Are the Dave Kansas friends going to buy right at the end of this -- at the end of this next dip or crash sollet (ph), if you will?

KANSAS: I like to use my mother as the indicator, and Gary, she e-mailed me last week in the midst of it all and says I`m not worried at all. I have no concerns whatsoever. She`s still not worried.

SMITH: There you go.

BUTTNER: Well, you know...

KANSAS: I think they`ll be fine.

BUTTNER: Well, traditionally...

SMITH: Yeah.

BUTTNER: ...it`s the little guys, it`s the individual investors who don`t panic and it`s the pros, I hate to tell you, Jonathan, but that have a bit of a fear.

All right, Adam.

LASHINSKY: OK, similar to Dave`s, only a little bit weaker. Tech stocks over the next two months are going to be weak. They`re going to move sideways with one possible caveat and that is the first week of May, the H&Q Conference. Conferences like that always get people excited about tech stocks, but I think they`ll fall back after that again.

COLARUSSO: There`s not much to get excited about though. I mean at this point in the game what can you say at one of those conferences, Adam? I mean, you really -- there`s not a lot of love to give.

LASHINSKY: I`ll tell you what, well, it`s a good point, Dan. But what I`ll tell you when stocks are down 70% and then the management comes in and they`re impressive and they`re enthusiastic and they say we`re going to take over the world, more than a few people say I want to own that stock.

BUTTNER: Mm-hmm.

LASHINSKY: You`ll see that happen.

COLARUSSO: But hasn`t that...

LASHINSKY: But then it can`t bounce.

COLARUSSO: Yeah, hasn`t that enthusiasm, though, kind of worn out its welcome and these guys are down 55, 60%?

LASHINSKY: We`ve seen it before with tech, it almost never wears out its welcome. Still, I agree with you, the pros especially will want to be sitting on their hands through really into the early summer.

BUTTNER: OK, Dan, your prediction.

COLARUSSO: Nasdaq pain continues. That`s going to go to our favorite people. That`s going to go to the online brokers. They`re going to -- they`re in for a period of -- at least to the summer, they`re going to be seeing their commissions fall. They`re going to have margin people who are all washed out, they`re not going to see the kind of business they were and that`s going to come down on the online broker. So look for a lot of weakness in that sector.

LASHINSKY: So, Dan, it`s my turn -- my turn to change and turn it on you. We`ve -- Dan, we`ve had this huge volatility, doesn`t that help the online brokers?

COLARUSSO: Well, it does for a while but you`ve got to imagine that volatility is coming from people who were borrowing money from them. That volatility is coming from people who trade a lot. After a while, that money starts to disappear and you get a little gun-shy. They have no other businesses to fall back on. They have very little money management, they have no interest income if that margin disappears, they`re not very well rounded yet and that`s going to be a problem that`s going to continue to be a problem for those guys.

LASHINSKY: Fair point.

SMITH: What about the traditional brokers, though, Dan. Are -- you think they`re going to suffer the same fate?

COLARUSSO: Not as much. I mean Merrill Lynch lives literally off its money management fees. I mean they pay -- I think, they cover 120% of their expenses with money management fees.

HOENIG: Yeah, good point.

COLARUSSO: So when you have that steady fee income, you`re set.

HOENIG: Right.

BUTTNER: All right. Now we`re only halfway through predictions so make sure not to go anyway. Up next we have predictions from the Chartman and the Capitalist Pig when TheStreet.com returns.

Predictions, we`ve got more of them and from two guys who`ve earned their living managing money. First up, Gary B. Smith.

SMITH: OK.

BUTTNER: What are you...

LASHINSKY: Gary.

BUTTNER: Does that make you speechless that you`ve -- that you`ve -- that you...

SMITH: I thought there`d be some great introduction or something.

(LAUGHTER)

BUTTNER: That was pretty good.

LASHINSKY: Just...Gary.

BUTTNER: That gives you credibility, Gary, all right.

SMITH: No, no, thank you. Let me -- let me go right to my prediction, then I`ll give you a caveat. If you look at a chart of the Nasdaq, this is what I`m looking at and I talked earlier about bear market rallies. You know, everyone thought we were out of the woods Monday and Tuesday. Thought, oh my gosh, those two great days. You know, that is so typical in a bear market. Bear market rallies are fast, they`re furious, they`re painful if you`re short, but nothing has changed. We`re still in a downtrend. I thought we would hit a target on the Nasdaq of about 4000. Maybe we do, maybe we don`t, maybe it was 3850 (ph) last week. In any event, I think it`s going to hit maybe that 4000. It`s already started to turn around. I think we`re going to go back down to 3,000. I am hoping it holds.

Now here`s my caveat. You know you have five people in the -- in the -- in the room or at least on the show and everyone`s very negative on the market. It almost makes me want to go positive, except for Dave`s mom, is when she turns negative on the market then I`m going to start being very bullish.

BUTTNER: Gary, does this suggest that you sell into any rallies then?

SMITH: I would definitely. I -- you know, I think in -- unless a market proves otherwise. Look, I don`t want it to be a bear market, I want it to be a bull market, but unless it proves otherwise, it`s just the same as buying on dips in a bull market. You want to sell into rallies on a bear market. So if you have -- you made great profits ...

LASHINSKY: Gary.

SMITH: ...early last week, I would say rake some off the table.

LASHINSKY: Gary, is there any difference between doing a chart on an index like the Nasdaq versus doing a chart on a stock like Cisco?

SMITH: Well, you know, it`s interesting. If you -- if you did -- you know, we showed the Cisco chart earlier, it`s almost the same identical thing. You know some people would say you can`t chart an index. I think you can. I just think you`re charting the sum of the stocks in there, but in any event, they all -- they all do look about the same.

BUTTNER: Mm. All right. Jonathan.

HOENIG: Well, you know, everyone`s very bearish on the Nasdaq. I actually have extended my bearish and I`ll agree with Gary, like when everyone`s bearish that`s not sort of the time you want to be bearish ...

BUTTNER: Right.

HOENIG: ...but -- and you have to look at the trend, Brenda. Where is the trend? The trend is obviously downward. I don`t think that the carnage is exclusive of the Nasdaq. I think we see the Dow hit 9000 -- yes. I think 10,000 falls like butter before October of this year.

BUTTNER: Now, you`ve said this before.

HOENIG: This is a reaffirmation of a previous prediction.

BUTTNER: Yes, yes.

HOENIG: And I, you know, I`m sticking with it. There`s really nothing through my technical work or even look back at the question of the valuations. I mean, what will justify admittedly expensive stocks to continue to trade at high multiples when the -- when interest rates are on the way up and when people are losing money in the stocks? I think you hit the Dow at 9000 by October, which is a very seasonally weak time for the market to be in.

COLARUSSO: So, essentially you`re saying that there`s going to be money just out of capital market?

HOENIG: Absolutely.

COLARUSSO: Where is this money going to go? Is this going -- is it time to buy a CD? I mean, what are we talking about here?

HOENIG: Well, I mean, I -- it`s a good question, Dan. I think people forget that. There isn`t always necessarily sellers on the way down like there is sellers on the way up. What you have and I think what we see is an absence of liquidity and that`s what happens when you get a stock ...

BUTTNER: Mm.

HOENIG: ... go from a 70 to a 60 in a day.

COLARUSSO: We`ve had that. We`ve had a buyer`s strike for the last couple of weeks actually in the Nasdaq. If you think that`s going to carry over, that`s interesting.

HOENIG: I do. I do and we`ll see the Dow as well.

BUTTNER: ...All right. You`ve heard from them, now we really want to hear from you. Tell us which prediction you like the best. Log onto TheStreet.com Web site and go to our TV Page. From there you can rate the predictions and check out TheStreet.com Web site to keep up with all the market`s moves, both minute-by-minute coverage and big-picture analysis. TSC reporters get you the important information you need to know to make smart investment decisions.

And thanks for joining us. Hope we helped you. We`ll see you here again next week. Until then, we hope you invest wisely.

END


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Copy: Content and Programming Copyright 2000 Fox News Network, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Transcription Copyright 2000 Federal Document Clearing House, Inc., which takes sole responsibility for the accuracy of the transcription. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No license is granted to the user of this material except for the user's personal or internal use and, in such case, only one copy may be printed, nor shall user use any material for commercial purposes or in any fashion that may infringe upon Fox News Network, Inc.'s and Federal Document Clearing House, Inc.'s copyrights or other proprietary rights or interests in the material. This is not a legal transcript for purposes of litigation.

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