Betting on a Postelection Rally in Mexico

Since 1976, every time the Mexican presidency has changed hands, the country's economy has hit the wall and crumbled. So profound has the link between elections and economic crisis been that a term has been coined for the curse that befalls the country every six years: the sexenio.

The last time around gave rise to the Tequila Crisis, which drove the peso to a poorly managed devaluation, inflation to a sky-high 52%, and the country into recession.

So with elections slated for July 2, it's understandable that investors are nervous -- particularly because the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, or the PRI, is facing the first real challenge to its power in seven decades. PRI candidate Francisco Labistida currently has a narrow lead over opposition candidate Vicente Fox in the polls. ...