Cutting Through the Macro With a Micro Focus: One Hedgie's Take

Now seems a good time to avoid Biggsian moments -- those urges to encapsulate "the market" in some global theory. It might be more useful (i.e., profitable) to focus on the micro, not the macro.

It's not as if tech were as obviously overvalued as in early March. It's not as if the Fed were clearly going to keep raising rates. It's not as if we were obviously headed for recession, which is the real butcher of bull markets. The elves are not screaming, "Sell!" Instead, the economy and corporate earnings seem to be slowing nicely, or not-so-nicely, depending on your viewpoint. (TheStreet.com takes a look at the second-quarter earnings picture in a story today.)

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A New TSC and a New Way to Cover the Markets

At this moment when people seem more inclined to buy than sell, the question facing all investors is this: Is now a good time to leap in? You could ask the strategists and economists on Wall Street. But most of those folks have been shown by history to be second-rate market timers. (The great investment analyst and counselor Philip A. Fisher wrote wisely on the difficulty of using economic data to time the market in his classic book Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits).

In that spirit, here are impressions of "the market" from a hedge fund manager on the front lines. No, he doesn't get paid to opine on "the market." But he does get paid to make money, which after all is the point of the exercise. ...