Pepsi One's Market-Share Quandary: Now You See It, Now You Don't

A year after its launch, fans of PepsiCo's (PEP Quote) Pepsi One like to say that it's the most successful new soft drink since the 1982 debut of Diet Coke.

Considering the dismal string of launches since then -- not only the infamous New Coke, but also gems such as Crystal Pepsi and Josta -- that may be entirely true. But neither is Pepsi One lighting a fire under sales of Pepsi's sagging cola division. And once Pepsi eases up on the spending pedal, it's not clear that the brand will be able to carve out a niche in the market and maintain even the so-so market share it now has -- particularly since the departure of Pepsi exec Phil Marineau, Pepsi One's sugar(free) daddy.

"The launch phenomenon is like artificial respiration -- eventually the oxygen masks must come off," says Tom Pirko, president of consulting firm Bevmark, which has consulted for both Pepsi and Coca-Cola (KO Quote). "In the marketplace, there's still confusion. There isn't a clear product differentiation." ...