Checking In With the Steadfast Pessimists

See How They (Don't) Run

SAN FRANCISCO -- Good news! Market prognosticators (a.k.a. "da bears") who've been wrong about the big picture in recent weeks, months and, in some cases, years remain steadfastly pessimistic.

So what? You might ask. Tell me more about bulls, such as Abby Cohen, the Goldman Sachs market strategist who upped earning estimates and price targets on the S&P 500 today. Or Lehman Brothers chief investment strategist Jeffrey Applegate, who upped his S&P 500 EPS target yesterday to far less fanfare than Cohen (contributing to a curious trend).

But don't ignore the bears, for their capitulation would be one sign the end (or at least the top) is nigh. Speaking of nigh, if sentiment polls began showing a sustained reading of 60% bullishness, that would be an indication stocks have reached the "silly season," according to Greg Nie, chief technical analyst at Everen Securities. Bulls were at 44.5% on Aug. 27, according to Investors Intelligence. ...