Trendspotting on the Producer Price Indices

Which One? Which One Will It Be?

JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. -- The trend in core (excluding food and energy) finished-goods prices is down. The trend in core intermediate- and crude-goods prices is up.

That's the message the Producer Price Indices have been delivering all year, and they sent it again in July.

The core finished-goods index held steady last month (compare to an average monthly increase of 0.1% over the past year). That leaves it growing at a 1.3% year-on-year rate, which marks a deceleration of 1.2 percentage points on its December 1998 peak. (See our economic indicators page for a chart.) ...