We Haven't Hit Bottom Yet

Spotting capitulation is usually a difficult game. Right now it's tougher than playing Three-Card Monte with a couple of street toughs. A true investible bottom has guys like me throwing in the towel as well as strategists and brokers. It has everyone buying puts and shorting.

A noncapitulation bottom is just guys like me talking bearish but staying invested and brokers saying, "I don't know if we are done going down, but I don't like the market. A noncapitulation bottom is when deals are postponed, and then when things look better the next day they are back on.

We don't have all of the signs of capitulation yet. That doesn't mean we can't have a rocking good couple of days. But we just haven't had the washout that I so much want before I commit big money. There are too many invested bears. ...