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Amazon Too Pricey to Make AOL Investment Work

 

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No matter how cheap Amazon (AMZN Quote) stock gets, AOL Time Warner (AOL Quote) is paying too much.

Amazon shares plunged 21% Tuesday morning after the Seattle-based company's Monday evening forecast of weak third-quarter financial results. As part of a broad e-commerce deal, AOL agreed to invest $100 million in Amazon stock at up to $15.28 a share, a 10% discount to Friday's closing price.

The bull spin: A savvy buyer of tech doesn't believe Amazon is going bust. The bear take: Amazon couldn't persuade AOL to pay a premium, a decision that looks good for AOL now that Amazon stock has fallen to around $13. It now appears likely that AOL will end up paying a price based on Amazon's five-day average close through next Monday, a price that is likely to be rather less than $15.28.

But AOL will go down as having paid too much, even at these prices. Amazon stock is still expensive, and the company's balance sheet suggests Amazon is getting squeezed by vendors wary of extending credit. As a result, AOL's prospects of seeing its Amazon stock appreciate aren't good.

Seeing Red

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