Fourth-Quarter Humbug: No Good Cheer May Await Big-Cap Tech

"Things will get better in the fourth quarter because comparisons will be much easier."

That mantra isn't aging well. After the heady market gains notched in April amid high hopes for a coming recovery, a slew of earnings confessions during the past two weeks have dragged stocks lower. Investors now worry that the fourth quarter -- when Wall Street hoped for the beginning of corporate good cheer -- may only deliver a lump of coal.

The growing belief is that the economic recovery won't translate to positive earnings growth until at least the first quarter of 2002. That's especially so for big-cap technology shares. ...