This Dow Goes To 11 (Thousand) -- and Can't Be Played Higher

"And just like that, he's gone." -- Kevin Spacey, The Usual Suspects

While not quite as elusive as Keyser Soze, the 11,000 mark on the Dow Jones Industrial Average is one the market has had a hard time holding on to. Since first crossing the threshold in May 1999, there have been 19 streaks where the Dow has closed above this figure only to fall back below it. (At midday, the Dow was at 10,665.17.)

When the Dow has slipped far below the mark, such as in March when it briefly dropped to 9100 intraday, that hasn't lasted either. For about two years now, the Dow has created an oblong, Pluto-like orbit with the 11,000 figure, never managing to hold fast above it nor trip far below it. In the past week, the Dow has once again waved goodbye to this figure. While it may climb above the mark again, all indications show the Dow's dance with 11,000 will continue for a while.

"Since March 1999, there's really been nothing going on," said Gary Kaltbaum, technical strategist at First Union Securities. "I suspect it's going to stay this way. It's a matter of earnings catching up with valuations, and it takes time. If you look at a long-term chart, you can tell this needs to happen. It has to go back to normality, either through a drop or with time." ...