The Daily Interview: Steering Clear of the R Word

As the year began, the consensus of many economists was that the economy would revive in the third quarter. But as growth remained stagnant, earnings continued to disappoint and the stock market kept tumbling, economists began pointing to the fourth quarter. Now some are saying they don't expect the economy to improve until 2002.

Martin Regalia Chief Economist, U.S. Chamber of Commerce

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Martin Regalia, chief economist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, still believes that gross domestic product growth will begin to pick up, albeit modestly, in the second half of the year. He also believes the economy hasn't fallen into a recession for two main reasons. One, consumer spending has remained strong, and two, GDP growth rates have remained positive only because they're coming down off of such a robust growth rate of 5% to 6% last year.

There's still a chance that second-quarter GDP figures could indicate a recession, Regalia says. Nonetheless, he's forecasting second-quarter GDP growth of 1.5%. Here's why Regalia remains cautiously optimistic. ...