The Daily Interview: All That Glitters Is Not Gold

Wondering where the stock market is heading next? Try taking a class in the History of the Business Cycle, 101. Today's Daily Interview takes a breather from Wall Street and ventures into the ivory tower for a chat with University of San Francisco Professor Michael B. Lehmann, who thinks his age -- he's 60 -- gives him a historical edge.

Michael B. Lehmann Professor of Economics University of San Francisco, San Francisco

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Indeed, the market has witnessed some uplifting gains in the past three weeks. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has gained about 15%, while the mighty Dow rose about 8.7% for the month. Nevertheless, April's gains don't guarantee that stocks are out of the woods and safe from the bears, according to Professor Lehmann, who teaches economics.

With history as his tool, Professor Lehmann believes that prices remain overvalued and that a recession could still be in the offing, Today's New Economy, he says, remains subject to the booms and busts of the traditional business cycle. And for bulls who argue that today's valuations in technology are justified by higher productivity, Lehmann has one thing to say: remember the railroad boom of the 19th century. ...