The TSC Streetside Chat: Ravi Suria (cont'd)

This is Part 2 of the TSC Streetside Chat with Ravi Suria. To go back to Part 1, click here.

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Brett D. Fromson: So how does this play out, since the endgame is evidently not going to be as rosy as was expected some years ago?

Ravi Suria: The big borrowing -- high-yield debt issuance -- ramped in late 1996 and early 1997, stayed high in 1998 through early 2000. Now, default rates tend to lag issuance by about four years, historically. Add on four years and you get 2001-03 as the period of peak defaults. So you have a string of defaults that will come. ...