Gasoline Supply: A Real-Time Metric

The crude oil market extended its gains on Wednesday following a larger-than-forecast decline in crude inventories as refineries increased operating rates. Supplies of crude fell over 2.8 million barrels last week, far above the 2.1 million barrel forecast.

On the other hand, gasoline supplies climbed by 1.44 million barrels, or about double the 775,000 barrel build that was forecast. What do these numbers tell us?

I believe the gasoline numbers are indicative of how the economy is doing in real time. Clearly the American consumer is feeling the pinch from higher unemployment and a host of other factors. People simply are not traveling as much, or even driving as much for that matter. ...