Oil-Led Recession? I Wouldn't Bet On It

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A recession led by oil. That's what the stocks are saying today, and I don't know if I agree. You can see Abbott (ABT) and Anheuser-Busch (BUD) and Schering-Plough (SGP) and Altria (MO), and you know that's the signal that the market thinks that we are not going to avoid a recession with the $5 gasoline that is coming.

That means Target's (TGT) wrong and Home Depot (HD) is right! That means we should be worried about U.S. Steel (X) and we should be buying Clorox (CLX). (It's pretty amazing that Kimberly-Clark (KMB) is up -- that's the one that is most levered to oil!)

You know my view: The stocks aren't telling it right. We aren't going to have a recession because of oil, because we haven't had a recession because of oil. In fact, the credit that is becoming available will offset the gasoline issues, and the companies that have adjusted to these prices will continue to adjust. ...