How Will McCain Play Iraq?

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D., N.Y.) ratcheted up the debate on national security last weekend with an ad asking the following question: "It's 3 a.m. and your children are safe and asleep. Who do you want answering the phone?" Although it was aimed at Sen. Barack Obama (D., Ill.), Sen. John McCain (R., Ariz.) responded strongly: "I would be the one most qualified to exercise the kind of judgment necessary to address a national security crisis."

The general election debate will feature national security and Iraq. And as the first nominee, John McCain could control the terms of at least the early debate.

Surprisingly George Friedman, the CEO of private intelligence provider Stratfor, says: "Iraq may have a smaller role in the election than many think."

Friedman points to white papers Obama has on his Web site that clearly state Obama's position:

"Obama will immediately begin to remove our troops from Iraq. He will remove one to two combat brigades each month, and have all of our combat brigades out of Iraq within 16 months. Obama will make it clear that we will not build any permanent bases in Iraq. He will keep some troops in Iraq to protect our embassy and diplomats; if al Qaeda attempts to build a base within Iraq, he will keep troops in Iraq or elsewhere in the region to carry out targeted strikes on al Qaeda."

Friedman thinks Obama will move to the center downplaying the talk of withdrawal in a general election. Certainly, Obama has played up his judgment on not wanting to go to war and would try to deflect the "experience" attacks from McCain in this manner. ...