Not the Time to Buy Tech

This column was originally published on RealMoney on Feb. 5 at 11:23 a.m. EST. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers. For more information about subscribing to RealMoney, please click here.

You want an untold story? How about the underperformance of tech, despite the endless attempts of people to try to flog the story as a major part of the bull market of 2007? In fact, it would be better to be in the homebuilders or the cyclicals; these are the fantastic performers of 2007. Same with the oils. I would take the steels over the semis any day of the week.

Check out the SOX and the Semiconductor HOLDRS(SMH Quote), the tech bellwethers. They peaked at the beginning of the year and haven't come near taking out their highs. Why is that? I would emphasize that we are right at the seasonal change of heart for tech and you aren't going to get the outperformance you are looking for from this group.

If you don't believe this -- and you probably don't -- take a look at Seagate(STX Quote) and Komag(KOMG Quote). The latter reported a good number but didn't give good guidance. That was totally fatal and the stock has turned into a major-league bow-wow. ...