Don't Buy Apple's One-Trick iPhone Pony

On Tuesday I described some reservations I have regarding the market's reaction to Apple's (AAPL Quote) iPhone.

While some have criticized my pricing and keyboard concerns, the real objection seems to be to my statement that Apple's shares have benefited from a nearly $20 billion incremental rise in equity capitalization from last week's MacWorld announcement.

In actuality, that was being conservative. I would say there was more than $5 to $10 of pre-announcement hype built in to Apple's share price, and then the stock rose another $10. With 870 million shares outstanding, those two pops represent $4.3 billion to $8.7 billion and $8.7 billion, respectively, which is how I arrive at nearly $20 billion in hype.

I believe those who have objected to my view are wrong. Here's why. ...