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Uh-Oh: That was a helluva week.
Barron's Trader column called it a "push-me-pull-me week as conflicting economic data made for choppy trading, and shares finished on a sour note Friday despite a late rally." Most of the economic data we saw this week was consistent with an economic slowdown and a possible recession -- neither of which tend to be ideal for equities. The Dow industrials slipped about 1%, closing at 12,194.13. The S&P 500 lost even less, 0.3%, ending at 1396.71. Of the major indices, the Nasdaq took the biggest hit, falling 2% to close at 2413.21. (This was the first week we put on shorts since the rally began.) But as Cramer says, there's always a bull market somewhere -- and this week it was in fixed income. Bonds rallied, driving yields back down. The 10-year was trading at a low, low 4.45% yield. Where to begin this week? The Dollar? Retail sales? Yields? Housing? The first 1% down day in six months? No matter -- we've got it all covered: Editor's note: To access some of these stories, registration or a subscription may be required. Please check the individual links for the site's policy.That's all from what may very well be the last temperate weekend in the Northeast, where snow is expected this coming week. Safe Shopping!INVESTING & TRADING
The Dollar Tumbles to 20-Month Low Against Euro, concerning investors this week. The argument is made that the dollar downdraft will resume. There's a broad discussion of what the dollar drop means at RGE. Meanwhile, Volatile Dollar May Not Be Scary to Washington. And, Hank Paulson may face disappointment in China Dollar, shmollar: The utility average just hit a new high. What a joke: The report of the Committee on Capital Markets Regulations came out this week -- claiming "Wall Street is losing its edge because of over-regulation." Nonsense, say the analysts at Breakingviews.com. They called the recommendations a "sop" to the industry, noting most of these recommendations would roll back investor protections and eliminate the Securities and Exchange Commission's watchdog role. And months ago, Slate observed that IPO fees in the US are more than double those in London -- something strangely omitted from the Committee's report. (What hacks!) The NYT's Floyd Norris took a different tack. He asks: Who Paid for Anti-Regulation Report? Columbia University's Jeffrey Gordon says the Hubbard report "overstates the case for weakening rules." What's been driving the rally? According to Dresdner Kleinwort's James Montier, it's been the "fully Invested Bears and rampant complacency." Excellent list -- 10 Common Trading Errors. What does the merger of NYSE and NASD regulatory agencies mean to investors? It's a Nice Deal for Wall Street, Bummer on Main Street. Is the stock market rational? A Street.com TV two-fer:- Beware of The Bear. Hugh Moore, portfolio manager for Guerite Advisors, tells Gregg Greenberg why his firm's stock market indicator is flashing the sell signal. - Long-Term Investing In A Short-Term World. Michael Mauboussin, chief investment strategist for Legg Mason Capital Management, talks about the value of long-term investing. Fortune observes: Sleazy CEOs have even more options tricks. See also: Exiting under a cloud, with $175 million. Interesting discussion: The Ten Best and Ten Worst -- Internet Acquisitions Ever. (Note that Hotmail is on both lists.) I hate these forecasts: Harry Schultz sees $1,500 for yellow metal. Trading Journal Checklist. Screw you guys, Rick! Kerkorian takes his chips and goes home. Dilbert on Restating Earnings.
ECONOMY
The Wall of worry continues to build: PMI, ISM, GDP: Seems like a soft landing is looking ever less likely: Buh-Bye Goldilocks. The Recession of 2007? Where costs will rise (or fall) in 2007. Bill Gross asks: Has the leverage potency of recent years reached a peak? Reality Check. Factory activity posts surprise contraction. Merrill Lynch calls ATA tonnage index for October "borderline recessionary."
RETAIL/SHOPPING A lot of retail data came out this week, and was a bit disappointing. In an interesting twist, some stores blamed the warm weather -- a welcome change from most years, when they blame it on the snow: Blaming Soft Retail on all the Wrong Things. Every year, the National Retail Federation puts out cheery survey data, and every year, the media misreport it: More Bad Data from the NRF? Amazon is making a major push into Gift Certificates this year. Retailers' Massive Discounting. Blogger's Take: Holiday Retail Sales. Lastly, see these:- Shoppers slow pace after early frenzy
- Not as many Black Friday shoppers, but spending is up
- Retail sales mixed at start of US holiday season; Car sales forecast to fall in 2007 to lowest since 1998.
HOUSING
Existing Home Sales & Prices came out this week, and it was record-setting ugly. Housing's Woes May STILL Be in Early Innings (if no Barron's, go here) The WSJ on Distressed Real-Estate: Priced to Sell in 2007 (free) This week's data showed Fewer New-Home Sales, But Median Price Rises (by now, we all know the pricing data is a fantasy) Gary Shilling gets all Medieval on Housing
FEDERAL RESERVE Lots of Fed speak this week, and commentary also: Caroline Baum: The Fed Cries Wolf. (Mr. Market Isn't Listening.) Fed's Plosser, Bernanke in Their Own Words (video). An email from Bernanke (funny!) Interesting tracking of the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's Political Meetings. Fed's Kohn says Economy hard to figure out at present. Will Bernanke's Programs Dilute Greenspan's "Intuition?" Greenspan Legacy Submits to Its First Review. Fed's big worry gets revised away.
SENTIMENT/PSYCHOLOGY Why We Worry About The Things We Shouldn't . . . And Ignore The Things We Should.
WAR/MEDIA/POLITICS/ENERGY
General Abizaid's presentation. (video) The 117? File this under WTF! Stealth plane set for mothballing by Air Force. WSJ: Majority of Americans Believe Iraq Is in 'Civil War'. (free) Who is worse for free trade, Dems or GOP? Answer: Both of them. The International Herald Tribune is the latest MSM to start blogging. Nicholas D. Kristof, displaying the crusading spirit of journalism at its finest, is Media Web's Print Journalist of the Year. Why we are overweight in OIL! The LA Car show. How Much Is Your Car Worth? Acura, Honda Pass BMW in Resale Value .TECHNOLOGY & SCIENCE
Beatles go digital: only on iPod? (About time!) I like a good quantum paradox as much as the next guy -- but retrocausality? Makes the head spin: sending photons back in time (yes, that was a bad quantum physics pun). Microsoft 'may need a rethink' on Zune. Ancient 'Jaws' had monster bite. Time Magazine Best Inventions for 2006. Mysteries of computer from 65 BC are solved.
MUSIC, BOOKS, TV, FUN!
If you are like me, you are just about sick death of the saccharine holiday music in too many stores and radio stations. My solution? Favorite Holiday CDs. My wish-list box set: Sinatra in Vegas, baby! The NYT's 10 Best Books of 2006. On the Edge of Blade Runner. (Or, was Deckard a replicant?) Sonya Kitchell's new CD, Words Came Back to Me, has a nice easygoing flavor to it. You can stream most of it here. Eric Idle on the Universe Composite photo of a busy airport It is a little known fact that Britney Spears is an expert in semiconductor physics. Not content with just singing and acting, she will guide you in the fundamentals of the vital laser components that have made it possible to hear her super music in a digital format. Seinfeld, the lost episode: National Lampoon absolutely trashes Kramer via clips of Seinfeld. It's the most clever response I've seen yet to Michael Richards' tirade.
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