The Canary in the Mine Is Singing

This column was originally published on RealMoney on June 12 at 11:08 a.m. EDT. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers.

It's a good thing the market had the weekend off after Friday's closing bell -- I don't believe anyone could have handled another session without a few days of rest. Unfortunately we now move into the heart of triple-witching options expiration, a period noted for high volatility and unexpected price movement. No rest for the weary.

Rome wasn't built in a day, and neither is an important market low. While Thursday's sharp reversal looks encouraging, we have little choice but to sit back and play the verification game. The indices need to round the bend and exhibit constructive price action before we risk substantial capital on a summer recovery.

Triple-witching has a way of separating truth from reality, so the following bullet points might offer a good starting point for the event. In any case, traders need to take their best shot on the basis of available data, and I'm getting really tired of sitting on my hands. ...