What is Alan Greenspan's legacy? Is he the greatest central banker of all time? How will Benjamin Bernanke's tenure change the Federal Reserve modus operandi?
Amid all of the thoughtful chin-scratching ahead of Tuesday's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, perhaps the most crucial question of all is getting short shrift: What is the likely path of monetary policy?
There seems to be a near-consensus view that the end of Greenspan's 18-year reign at the Fed will roughly coincide with the end of a 19-month long tightening campaign. The market has fully priced in Tuesday's expected 25 basis-point rate hike, which would take the Fed funds rate to 4.50%. But the majority believe one additional rate hike in March -- if even -- will certainly mark the end of the cycle. ...
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