Cult of the Bear, Part 2

In part 1, we reviewed my forecasting process, and considered some reasons why -- despite its bullish start -- 2006 might be rocky for U.S. equities. Today, we go to the charts.

The 100-Year Dow

Humans are particularly bad at thinking about long periods of time. We have evolved with much shorter cycles: A daily sunrise, a monthly full moon, annual seasonal changes. Longer periods of time are outside of our personal experience. They create an analytical blind spot.

When we look at the "long term," we discover interesting things. Consider each "market" period in this 100-year chart. ...