Apple's Got Its Mojo Back

This column was originally published on RealMoney on Nov. 7 at 8:53 a.m. EST. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers.

If you read many of the columns on RealMoney, you'll note several writers voice a reliance on their feel for the market. From fundies like Jim Cramer to technicians like Rev Shark, "the gut" seems to be an important aspect of trading. This approach is summed up by a recent email I received from long-time reader C.I.:

Gary, I believe picking stocks is as intuitive as it is analytical. With 20 years investment experience, I have learned to trust my "gut" and it usually does not let me down. When my gut feel is wrong, I have a greater degree of comfort in my decisions, even though they may be wrong, because I listened to myself and acted accordingly. If I am going to lose a football game, it won't be because my best running back did not have 20 carries and someone else was calling plays. C.I.

First, let me state I agree with C.I. Relying on your intuition and feel does work in the market. Let me also say I believe it is inferior to a pure statistical method. I make that statement for two reasons.

One, if you rely a lot on intuition and are objective about testing it, I believe you will find it is accurate no more than 50% of the time. In my experience, most people are biased when remembering how right their gut was and tend to ignore all the times they were wrong. An accurate accounting will usually prove sobering. ...