Chip-Equipment Cycle Confounds

SAN FRANCISCO -- With uncertainty comes underperformance.

And both terms apply this year to semiconductor-equipment stocks, which have lost ground to other tech stocks in 2005, because of the mystery of where the industry sits in its current business cycle, according to six analysts who gathered here Thursday for a panel discussion.

While some clarity is expected shortly as earnings season gets under way, even that might not be good enough to clear up the confusion about where stocks go from here. Half the panel's analysts predicted that a peak in stocks will occur at the start of 2006, while the other half predicted a trough will occur at the same point. ...