For Rallying Dollar, the Race Looks Run

The dollar has proven this year that it can rally farther and for longer than all but the most contrarian observers believed possible. But with the greenback up 6.5% year to date vs. a basket of other major currencies, and trading near a seven-month high vs. the euro on Friday, the rally is looking a little long in the tooth.

"The easy money's been made," said David Greenwald, one of the dollar bulls cited here in mid-March and a partner at Scalene Partners, a currency-focused hedge fund with over $100 million under management. "I'm not as gung-ho to be long the dollar from here."

Greenwald is far from bearish and thinks "it's not unreasonable" to think the euro could retest the $1.20 level over the course of the summer -- potentially sooner if voters in France and/or Holland reject forthcoming referendums regarding the adoption of the European Union constitution. Still, he views the $1.2430 to $1.2530 range as "meaningful support" for the single currency, which was trading at $1.2564 late Friday in New York. ...