A Little Sleuthing Can Lead to Big Profits

After the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq has begun, global stock markets and individual consumers will react in ways both predictable and obvious.

Or at least it will seem that way in retrospect. For no matter which way stocks ultimately move -- up, down or sideways -- we are bound to hear a chorus of traders, policymakers, economists and friends declaring that the rest of us were idiots for not understanding the result was clear as day many weeks before.

So what will be so obvious in retrospect? ...