Microsoft Payment Deadline Arrives With Analysts Still Guessing

Microsoft(MSFT Quote) crosses a significant threshold today, the deadline for customers to switch to a new and controversial way of paying for software.

The change cements deferred revenue's position among the most important metrics for tracking the future prospects of the world's largest software company. The trouble is, Microsoft has offered limited detail to analysts on estimating deferred revenue under its new payment plan. Consequently, only a handful of analysts are forecasting the number, and their estimates range widely.

Without the details, Pacific Crest Securities analyst Brendan Barnicle said estimating deferred revenue becomes a guessing game that requires an "enormous number of assumptions." Barnicle speculated Microsoft won't offer details on customer bookings because it would indicate the success of its transition to the new model, which the company has acknowledged it has mishandled by initially setting an earlier deadline. Barnicle has a buy rating on Microsoft and owns the stock. His firm has done banking with the company. ...