Meet the Street: Signs of a First-Quarter Recovery

Don't blink now, but the recession that was only officially recognized four months ago by the experts may already be over.

Dean Croushore Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

RecentMeet the Streets

Morningstar's George Nichols

Lehman Brothers' Matt Zolin

First Albany Asset Management's Hugh Johnson

Driehaus Capital Management's Richard Driehaus

New York Knicks' Kurt Thomas

Author Charles W. Mulford

According to a report issued last week by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the current recession, which began in March 2001 according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, may end this quarter.

Each quarter, the Philadelphia Fed surveys a group of 35 economists drawn from academia as well as the public and private sector for their projections for the economy. This latest time around, its respondents expected GDP growth of 1.4% this quarter and 3% for the whole year (the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of business cycles, relies exclusively on academic economists). ...