Ditch the Notion of a 'Q2/02' Recovery

Editor's Note: Jim Seymour's column runs exclusively on RealMoney.com; this is a special free look at his column. For a free trial subscription to RealMoney.com, click here. This article was published Jan. 18 on RealMoney.

From about the beginning of last year's fourth quarter, or maybe a little earlier, we heard a drumbeat of forecasts of a recovery starting in the second quarter of this year. The idea seemed to come from every direction, every analyst. It made some sense; it matched previous cycles; it felt good.

Network carriers were going to start carrying; switch makers were going to start switching; consumers were going to start consuming; corporate buyers were going to start buying. Life would be good. Stocks would go up. The "Q2/02 Recovery" mantra took hold.

Almost all of us wanted to believe it. The second quarter of 2002 seemed at once distant, yet close enough that if we could count on a recovery then, well, hey, we could survive. Heads down and bull ahead, etc. ...