Double Your Fun With DoubleClick!

DoubleClick (DCLK Quote) is an Internet advertising play. But it's still a good investment.

For starters, it isn't as risky an Internet advertising play as you might think. In the third quarter ended Sept. 30, media sales -- that is, revenue from the advertising it sells on behalf of other companies -- constituted the smallest of its three revenue segments. Expect that trend to continue as the company minimizes its exposure to this now-difficult business.

In 2002, more revenue will come from the company's steady but slow-growing catalog data business, and the majority of sales probably will come from the business of enabling other companies to deliver ads and emails. The technology business, in which DoubleClick is emerging as the industry consolidator, spreads the Net-advertising risk beyond the ability of DoubleClick's employees to sell ads.

At heart, though -- danger: nonmathematical argument ahead -- is a gut feeling. DoubleClick reminds me of America Online in its pre-Time Warner days, at times when its success was far from guaranteed. After years of watching AOL, I finally realized that it was going to survive. Yes, it was going to make missteps and get into trouble with attorneys general across the U.S. But it would bounce back. ...