Meet the Street: The Big Picture for the Holiday Shopping Season

Irwin Cohen, Managing Director, Deloitte & Touche

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"Bad" is not how Irwin Cohen would describe the upcoming holiday season for the nation's retailers.

Cohen, global managing director for Deloitte & Touche's consumer business practice, prefers the word "challenging." He is more bullish than most, and says shopkeepers are well-prepared with trim inventories and promotions to woo shoppers this holiday season, which officially begins today. Indeed, the economy was shaky long before Sept. 11, he notes.

As Americans prepared to bolt the office for the Thanksgiving holiday, Cohen spoke with TheStreet.com on his outlook for the holidays and when he expects a turnaround.

TSC: This week is the official start of the holiday shopping season. How bad will it be?

Cohen: I guess "bad" is not a term I would use. I think it's going to be a "challenging" holiday season. Last year GAF sales -- general merchandise, apparel and home furnishing -- were up about 4%. We're looking at that similar measure for November and December of this year to be up in the zero to 1% range.

It's going to be a challenge, but another way to look at it -- kind of a glass-half-empty, glass-half-full way -- is that given everything that is going on and has gone on in this country, to even feel that sales will be up is a pretty positive statement. I'm not sure the retailers would look at it that way, but it could be worse.

TSC: What are retailers doing differently this year to attract shoppers? ...