A Moderate Recovery Is in the Works

These days, I know plenty of economic bears and bulls. The bears say we're just at the beginning of an economic downturn, and the events of Sept. 11 will only magnify the problem of the tech bubble's demise. The bulls say that though September's events caused a sharp downdraft, we're now primed for a strong recovery.

Me? I think the economy was struggling before September, and it was given a sharp push down. When a recovery starts, probably sometime in the first half of next year, we'll most likely see a fairly slow and modest advance unless we get some help in the form of lower corporate bond yields.

A Chilling September

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