Stocks Marching to Dismal Scientists' Beat

For once, Wall Street's economists have managed to sing in harmony. Recovery, they say, will have begun by the end of the first quarter next year. This, understandably, is music to the market's ears: Stocks have always bottomed ahead of the economy.

But that doesn't mean investors have to dance along.

From the beginning of the year right on up to Sept. 11, there was a lot of bickering among the dismal scientist set. Some saw recession in the offing; others said the economy would skirt it. Early on, many forecasters thought the economy's eventual recovery (whether from a mere slowdown or a recession) would be V-shaped; others opted for a less-fun U. And so on. ...