The Daily Interview: More Bad News for Media Concerns

Media companies were already facing an economic slowdown before Sept. 11. But now, following the terrorist attacks on the Pentagon and World Trade Center, investors are trying to figure out just how much worse things can get.

Neil Begley Senior Analyst Moody's Investors Service

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To help answer that question, TheStreet.com talked with someone who has to pay extremely close attention to the money flowing into and out of media firms: Neil Begley, a senior analyst at credit-rating agency Moody's Investors Service. A seven-year veteran of Moody's, Begley rates the investment-grade debt of media, entertainment and sports firms ranging from AOL Time Warner (AOL Quote) to YankeeNets.

Begley, previously a media and telecom banker at Barclays Capital and a CPA at KPMG, says a major effect of the terrorist attacks on the media industry is a new note of realism among economic projections.

TSC: Where are the strongest repercussions of the terrorist attacks in the media industry?

Begley: This is probably going to be the worst year, year over year, for advertising since World War II. Up until now, for advertising as a whole, there may not ever have been a recession -- [the worst case] was like 0.1% either up or down. That was as close as we ever got. But this year, I can guarantee you, there will be an advertising recession, first time ever. It'll be most severely felt in print and television. ...