Report Card: Mary Meeker

Mary Meeker Morgan Stanley Dean Witter
	Report Card 3* Overall rank 3* Rank by institutions 14* Rank by stock picking Makes money for me Saves me from disaster Makes me think Tells the truth Meaningful service, not overkill Well-connected *Out of 28. Best star rating is 3 stars. Click here for our methodology.
3rd Place Internet Software and Services

Biography

B.A., DePauw University; M.B.A., Cornell University. Joined Morgan Stanley Dean Witter in 1991 and is currently the firm's Internet and PC software analyst. Previously, she was a technology analyst at SG Cowen and at Salomon Smith Barney.

Industry Outlook and Style

The Winners

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Meeker is a bull on the Internet, but not on most Internet companies. In her firm's May 2000 report, The Technology Primer -- Vol. VII, Meeker likened the Internet to an "epidemic." Citing a current 225 million daily users who average 30-60 minutes of use per day, she predicted continued strong growth. She saw wireless Internet access becoming commonplace and broadband becoming a reality.

Meeker, who was not available for an interview, said in the report that many "traditional companies will lose incremental revenue to Internet pure-plays" and that the "global village" the Net creates will give small firms the chance to dramatically increase their customer bases.

Still, Meeker wrote that most Internet stocks are overvalued and will fail. "When all is said and done, 30% of Internet IPOs will be trading above issue price, 70% below." She also reminded investors that "the true value of an enterprise is the present value of future cash flows -- always has been, always will be." Meeker said the costs of building Net companies is high and will only increase. She forecasts heightened competition and consolidation. Meeker had no "strong buy" ratings on any stocks as of June 23. Indeed, that day she said Amazon (AMZN Quote) could fall short of her estimates for the second and third quarter -- a comment that helped send the stock plunging.

Meeker's advice to clients: Go with the leaders. "Remember Microsoft versus Lotus; Cisco versus Wellfleet; Dell and Compaq versus Everex," she wrote.

Among the institutional voters in TheStreet.com's analyst survey, comments on Meeker were mixed. One voter said "Great long-term perspective. Understands how these companies build wealth for shareholders over time." But another said: "It's her organization[al] abilities at MS, not her actual analysis these days!!! Let's see some fundamentals from the Master again!!"

Stock Pick

Favorite stock for the next 12 months:
In Meeker's list of stocks expected to outperform others in the industry: Yahoo!(YHOO Quote).

Comment:
Meeker made a strong statement with the title of her May 19 report on the stock, Yahoo!: The Microsoft of the New Millennium. She believes Yahoo! will survive the current Net-stock funk. "Bottom line, communications is increasingly woven into peoples' lives, and Yahoo! provides a great set of tools to enable communications -- and this should only improve."


Rate Their Stock Picks: Which stock do you like best? Blodget/Baker AOL Meeker* Yahoo!
* Blodget and Baker each gave us their top stock picks. For Meeker's pick, her firm identified Yahoo! as a stock on her list of stocks expected to outperform others in the industry.