Chris Edmonds Chats on Yahoo!, April 14

04/14/00 - 06:53 PM EDT

Yahoo Chatters

Christopher Edmonds chatted on Yahoo! on Friday, April 14. As with all chats, this transcript is unedited.

chris_edmonds_tsc: Wild day on Wall Street -- lets get ready to rumble -- up or down on Monday -- lets talk about it. Hit me with your best questions -- nothing is off limits -- marketwise that is . . . here we go!!

Ruben_cito asks: So, what you think of the market?

chris_edmonds_tsc: Wild day -- nothing really was spared -- wash out maybe, but probably a little more on Monday morning.

pgrundy asks: How long will this trend continue? When will it be safe to go long again?

chris_edmonds_tsc: I'd be careful and patient. Don't fight this tape -- wait for a real turn -- you are going to see some head fakes -- I haven't seen enough pain yet. Probably a week or so of choppiness is ahead.

doncarlos25 asks: Where do you see communication stocks; ie MCI and AT&T and Sprint by year's end?

chris_edmonds_tsc: Like T a lot -- think the wireless tracker is interesting and creates interest - probably higher from here, but again, choppy, choppy, choppy for the next week or so!

doncarlos25 asks: Berkshire Hathaway brk.b shows promising results or not?

chris_edmonds_tsc: Hard to tell -- Buffett looks pretty smart today, though!! What about those REITs. I want to wait and see what he has to say at the annual meeting the end of this month.

choose_choices asks: Understand the principal of a diversified portfolio, sectors, developing, int'l. value, etc. Any protection vs. a market move like this??

chris_edmonds_tsc: Not a whole lot -- Europe sold off, Asia sold off, etc.

chris_edmonds_tsc: Nothing much at home either. Check out our site in a couple of minutes -- I have a piece on REITs, really the only sector that weathered this weeks storm.

seagal_usa asks: Is buying gold and silver a good idea right now?

chris_edmonds_tsc: If you use it on your table at home, sure. If not, I'd pass!

chris_edmonds_tsc: I think I'd stay away right now. Hard assets are good, but I think the old days of metals being safe havens are likely gone for a long, long, long time!

choose_choices asks: Is this institutionally driven or private investor driven at this point?

chris_edmonds_tsc: Great question -- I think its professional money. If you look at fund flow data it is up - even in the growth funds.

chris_edmonds_tsc: I think pros are selling and sitting on cash and aren't buying much of anything right now. Timing is tough -- that's why I think next week is very choppy at the outset.

dave_1920 asks: Bear or correction?

chris_edmonds_tsc: Maybe brown bear, not polar by any means -- we'll head back up -- my guess is as earnings numbers come in this quarter. It will be more selective though.

chris_edmonds_tsc: I think there are a number of former go-gos in the internet space that may NEVER come back

BradSRQ asks: Where was the "white knight" that usually comes in on days like today?

chris_edmonds_tsc: With a beautiful princess in the part somewhere far from Wall Street!

chris_edmonds_tsc: Good question, we talked a lot about that today -- I actually thought after the CPI this morning we would wash out and rally this afternoon. Glad I didn't act on that hunch!

studhorse6 asks: Will the market go as low as 6000?

chris_edmonds_tsc: NOT -- Next.

choose_choices asks: Volume was not that high in this sell-off...that means what??

chris_edmonds_tsc: It means volume wasn't very high.

chris_edmonds_tsc: Hard to tell - its Friday and a nice day in NY -- I'll tell you Monday.

ruanred asks: Is motorola a good buy now?

chris_edmonds_tsc: Maybe -- not early Monday -- I think I'd wait -- I like the other cell phone makers better. Too hard to understand the company versus the pure play.

mollie_wallie asks: Isn't this the same day the Titanic went down?!?

chris_edmonds_tsc: Ka-ching!

LucyLucy123 asks: Can you tell me what happen next week is it the same as this week?

chris_edmonds_tsc: I think you mean last week -

chris_edmonds_tsc: Its follow-through but I think there was more selling conviction this week - especially yesterday and today -- that would suggest to me we are somewhere closer to the bottom at least a week closer by any means.

doncarlos25 asks: How's the semiconductor index SOX going to hold up by years end?

chris_edmonds_tsc: Important sector in the new economy - watch earnings this quarter and, more importantly, hints of third quarter performance ahead -- that's where the stumble usually comes. I'm long Intel,

Applied_laura_the_street:What makes you think we have, in fact, hit a bottom (more or less), if that is your opinion?

chris_edmonds_tsc: I'm not sure we have hit the bottom - I think we are closer -- I think Monday morning could be ugly and that may be a hint of the bottom.

chris_edmonds_tsc: That said, I'm not sure I'd be too eager to jump in until the tape looks better. I remember two very important rules from Investing 101 on days like this -- don't fight the tape and don't fight the fed. Both are big battles in this market!

sacto_pooky asks: Can any of this be blamed on media frenzy? It seems that mainstream news sources have been waiting for this bubble to burst.

chris_edmonds_tsc: Great, great question!! Certainly CNBC and others (web included) tend to overplay moves -- that's their business.

chris_edmonds_tsc: That said, the markets are rational and more info is better. So, it may have happened slower or the characteristics would have been different, but in the end I think the results would be the same. I hope so!

sacto_pooky asks: Do you think we'll look back at this day in three months and just shrug?

chris_edmonds_tsc: I hope so! I think we'll be higher three months from now!

doncarlos25 asks: Is it true 80% of most stocks reach their high or low at the opening bell?

chris_edmonds_tsc: Hmm, probably not since at the very moment of the opening bell 80% of stocks aren't event trading!

choose_choices asks: The trouble with the "bottom" is that keep moving that sucker...time for a 12 step program??

chris_edmonds_tsc: I hate moving bottoms -- unless they move higher. Not yet, unless you are an addicted day trader with no money left!

chris_edmonds_tsc: Lets talk stocks -- give me some names -- lets make this fun!

LucyLucy123 asks: Will the Nasdaq and the Downjones come back, and how long? thank you.

chris_edmonds_tsc: We will hit 20,000 on the Dow before we hit 0 - I guarantee it. We will be higher three months from now then we are today!

thomas68_us asks: So any ideas on what happens on Monday?

chris_edmonds_tsc: Only my guess -- ugly, ugly start -- good finish. I hope it's not too good though -- we need to base - build a base that is.

laura_the_street: Would it make sense to get on the short side on Monday, if even for a few hours? Surely a short strategy would have been very profitable this entire week.

chris_edmonds_tsc: Not really a day trader here, but I think early short will be better -- but the swing could be fast and hard to cover.

dondunn63 asks: How quickly do fund managers move funds out of distressed sectors? Or is that too broad a question?

chris_edmonds_tsc: Depends on the fund and the style -- some by the second, some never. Those on the never side, usually go away.

choose_choices asks: Do you sense a sea change away from the glamour of .com's and back to value stocks?

chris_edmonds_tsc: Many dots wont ever recover -- the differentiation process has begun.

chris_edmonds_tsc: That said, the new economy will propel this market higher, it just may be different names and fewer names. Value is in today -- REITs were higher, utilities (without net exposure) also fared well!

J_i_G_a_R asks: Is this a good time to buy big cap techs?

chris_edmonds_tsc: If I'm buying tech, that's where I would be. Liquidity is most important here -- especially as the market swings like I think it will in the next couple of session.

iceman00_59714 asks: Do you think this is similar to the crash in the Japanese markets?

chris_edmonds_tsc: Not even close. There is plenty of liquidity and, ultimately, a very friendly Fed. And, real estate and banks are very strong and very robust. Never say never, but darn close here.

laura_the_street: ORCL, the #2 software company in the world closed at 63 1/2. Are they overvalued with a market cap of $179 Billion and a P/E of 113?

chris_edmonds_tsc: First, I'm long ORCL! Painful. But I think they are a long-term winner. A core position for most tech holders. Like it at these levels but again might wait and not buy at the open.

DeanoWind asks: I am a candidate for a Summer Internship with a major financial institution. I would be working in IT but there is a chance I could be working on the trading floor. How hectic is it on the floor? Is it as stressful as it looks in films? Do fights happen?

chris_edmonds_tsc: Never been in a fight! It's great, its tough, and its rugged. I'd encourage it!

doncarlos25 asks: Are dividends really that important? And can we just invest $10 today and hope it'll be worth $100 20 years from now instead of worrying about earnings?

chris_edmonds_tsc: If you invest 10 dollars a day for 10 days you'll have 100.

chris_edmonds_tsc: Dividends become more important as the markets swing like today. Check out my piece on TSC on REITs and dividends on the site right now.

theyson asks: Where do you see fuel cell industry such as efcx in the next month?

chris_edmonds_tsc: Have no monthly idea -- but fuel cells are the future of the electricity and power biz. Ask Enron, ask Southern, ask Calpine. They all want a piece of the action.

Canman169 asks: Is CSCO still a core holding?

chris_edmonds_tsc: Yes - great company, still - don't jump on Monday until you know what direction the wind is blowing. Patience is key.

iceman00_59714 asks: Do you see the Fed raising 25 basis points in May if the market continues downward?

chris_edmonds_tsc: Great question -- I think Greenspan would lobby to wait!! But, that's a long way from now. The DOW could be at 13K by then!

Canman169 asks: What is your opinion on COMS?

chris_edmonds_tsc: Tough story -- don't know if I'd be there right now. Like my Palm Pilot though!

choose_choices asks: If I get your drift...we are in for a bumpy, choppy several weeks....ergo..cash is King...sit tight, be selective, take a vacation,,,take a valium...take stock?? direction?

chris_edmonds_tsc: I recommend Hawaii!

chris_edmonds_tsc: Seriously, be careful, be prudent, and be patient. This will work itself out -- the bottom is closer than it was and probably the choppiness will continue until earnings flow in from big blue chips and are good -- I think they will be and we head higher. Selective buying with cash in hand is a pretty good strategy.

chris_edmonds_tsc: At least enough cash to head to Hawaii!! :)

laura_the_street: Thanks for joining us today Chris.

chris_edmonds_tsc: Thanks guys! Its a rocky road out there and TheStreet.com can help you through it!

Christopher S. Edmonds is president of Resource Dynamics, a private financial consulting firm based in Atlanta. At time of publication, neither Edmonds nor his firm held positions in any securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. While Edmonds cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he welcomes your feedback at invest@cjnetworks.com.
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