Christopher Edmonds chatted on Yahoo! on Friday, April 14. As with all chats, this transcript is unedited.
chris_edmonds_tsc: Wild day on Wall Street -- lets get ready to rumble -- up or down on Monday -- lets talk about it. Hit me with your best questions -- nothing is off limits -- marketwise that is . . . here we go!! Ruben_cito asks: So, what you think of the market? chris_edmonds_tsc: Wild day -- nothing really was spared -- wash out maybe, but probably a little more on Monday morning. pgrundy asks: How long will this trend continue? When will it be safe to go long again? chris_edmonds_tsc: I'd be careful and patient. Don't fight this tape -- wait for a real turn -- you are going to see some head fakes -- I haven't seen enough pain yet. Probably a week or so of choppiness is ahead. doncarlos25 asks: Where do you see communication stocks; ie MCI and AT&T and Sprint by year's end? chris_edmonds_tsc: Like T a lot -- think the wireless tracker is interesting and creates interest - probably higher from here, but again, choppy, choppy, choppy for the next week or so! doncarlos25 asks: Berkshire Hathaway brk.b shows promising results or not? chris_edmonds_tsc: Hard to tell -- Buffett looks pretty smart today, though!! What about those REITs. I want to wait and see what he has to say at the annual meeting the end of this month. choose_choices asks: Understand the principal of a diversified portfolio, sectors, developing, int'l. value, etc. Any protection vs. a market move like this?? chris_edmonds_tsc: Not a whole lot -- Europe sold off, Asia sold off, etc. chris_edmonds_tsc: Nothing much at home either. Check out our site in a couple of minutes -- I have a piece on REITs, really the only sector that weathered this weeks storm. seagal_usa asks: Is buying gold and silver a good idea right now? chris_edmonds_tsc: If you use it on your table at home, sure. If not, I'd pass! chris_edmonds_tsc: I think I'd stay away right now. Hard assets are good, but I think the old days of metals being safe havens are likely gone for a long, long, long time! choose_choices asks: Is this institutionally driven or private investor driven at this point? chris_edmonds_tsc: Great question -- I think its professional money. If you look at fund flow data it is up - even in the growth funds. chris_edmonds_tsc: I think pros are selling and sitting on cash and aren't buying much of anything right now. Timing is tough -- that's why I think next week is very choppy at the outset. dave_1920 asks: Bear or correction? chris_edmonds_tsc: Maybe brown bear, not polar by any means -- we'll head back up -- my guess is as earnings numbers come in this quarter. It will be more selective though. chris_edmonds_tsc: I think there are a number of former go-gos in the internet space that may NEVER come back BradSRQ asks: Where was the "white knight" that usually comes in on days like today? chris_edmonds_tsc: With a beautiful princess in the part somewhere far from Wall Street! chris_edmonds_tsc: Good question, we talked a lot about that today -- I actually thought after the CPI this morning we would wash out and rally this afternoon. Glad I didn't act on that hunch! studhorse6 asks: Will the market go as low as 6000? chris_edmonds_tsc: NOT -- Next. choose_choices asks: Volume was not that high in this sell-off...that means what?? chris_edmonds_tsc: It means volume wasn't very high. chris_edmonds_tsc: Hard to tell - its Friday and a nice day in NY -- I'll tell you Monday. ruanred asks: Is motorola a good buy now? chris_edmonds_tsc: Maybe -- not early Monday -- I think I'd wait -- I like the other cell phone makers better. Too hard to understand the company versus the pure play. mollie_wallie asks: Isn't this the same day the Titanic went down?!? chris_edmonds_tsc: Ka-ching! LucyLucy123 asks: Can you tell me what happen next week is it the same as this week? chris_edmonds_tsc: I think you mean last week - chris_edmonds_tsc: Its follow-through but I think there was more selling conviction this week - especially yesterday and today -- that would suggest to me we are somewhere closer to the bottom at least a week closer by any means. doncarlos25 asks: How's the semiconductor index SOX going to hold up by years end? chris_edmonds_tsc: Important sector in the new economy - watch earnings this quarter and, more importantly, hints of third quarter performance ahead -- that's where the stumble usually comes. I'm long Intel, Applied_laura_the_street:What makes you think we have, in fact, hit a bottom (more or less), if that is your opinion? chris_edmonds_tsc: I'm not sure we have hit the bottom - I think we are closer -- I think Monday morning could be ugly and that may be a hint of the bottom. chris_edmonds_tsc: That said, I'm not sure I'd be too eager to jump in until the tape looks better. I remember two very important rules from Investing 101 on days like this -- don't fight the tape and don't fight the fed. Both are big battles in this market! sacto_pooky asks: Can any of this be blamed on media frenzy? It seems that mainstream news sources have been waiting for this bubble to burst. chris_edmonds_tsc: Great, great question!! Certainly CNBC and others (web included) tend to overplay moves -- that's their business. chris_edmonds_tsc: That said, the markets are rational and more info is better. So, it may have happened slower or the characteristics would have been different, but in the end I think the results would be the same. I hope so! sacto_pooky asks: Do you think we'll look back at this day in three months and just shrug? chris_edmonds_tsc: I hope so! I think we'll be higher three months from now! doncarlos25 asks: Is it true 80% of most stocks reach their high or low at the opening bell? chris_edmonds_tsc: Hmm, probably not since at the very moment of the opening bell 80% of stocks aren't event trading! choose_choices asks: The trouble with the "bottom" is that keep moving that sucker...time for a 12 step program?? chris_edmonds_tsc: I hate moving bottoms -- unless they move higher. Not yet, unless you are an addicted day trader with no money left! chris_edmonds_tsc: Lets talk stocks -- give me some names -- lets make this fun! LucyLucy123 asks: Will the Nasdaq and the Downjones come back, and how long? thank you. chris_edmonds_tsc: We will hit 20,000 on the Dow before we hit 0 - I guarantee it. We will be higher three months from now then we are today! thomas68_us asks: So any ideas on what happens on Monday? chris_edmonds_tsc: Only my guess -- ugly, ugly start -- good finish. I hope it's not too good though -- we need to base - build a base that is. laura_the_street: Would it make sense to get on the short side on Monday, if even for a few hours? Surely a short strategy would have been very profitable this entire week. chris_edmonds_tsc: Not really a day trader here, but I think early short will be better -- but the swing could be fast and hard to cover. dondunn63 asks: How quickly do fund managers move funds out of distressed sectors? Or is that too broad a question? chris_edmonds_tsc: Depends on the fund and the style -- some by the second, some never. Those on the never side, usually go away. choose_choices asks: Do you sense a sea change away from the glamour of .com's and back to value stocks? chris_edmonds_tsc: Many dots wont ever recover -- the differentiation process has begun. chris_edmonds_tsc: That said, the new economy will propel this market higher, it just may be different names and fewer names. Value is in today -- REITs were higher, utilities (without net exposure) also fared well! J_i_G_a_R asks: Is this a good time to buy big cap techs? chris_edmonds_tsc: If I'm buying tech, that's where I would be. Liquidity is most important here -- especially as the market swings like I think it will in the next couple of session. iceman00_59714 asks: Do you think this is similar to the crash in the Japanese markets? chris_edmonds_tsc: Not even close. There is plenty of liquidity and, ultimately, a very friendly Fed. And, real estate and banks are very strong and very robust. Never say never, but darn close here. laura_the_street: ORCL, the #2 software company in the world closed at 63 1/2. Are they overvalued with a market cap of $179 Billion and a P/E of 113? chris_edmonds_tsc: First, I'm long ORCL! Painful. But I think they are a long-term winner. A core position for most tech holders. Like it at these levels but again might wait and not buy at the open. DeanoWind asks: I am a candidate for a Summer Internship with a major financial institution. I would be working in IT but there is a chance I could be working on the trading floor. How hectic is it on the floor? Is it as stressful as it looks in films? Do fights happen? chris_edmonds_tsc: Never been in a fight! It's great, its tough, and its rugged. I'd encourage it! doncarlos25 asks: Are dividends really that important? And can we just invest $10 today and hope it'll be worth $100 20 years from now instead of worrying about earnings? chris_edmonds_tsc: If you invest 10 dollars a day for 10 days you'll have 100. chris_edmonds_tsc: Dividends become more important as the markets swing like today. Check out my piece on TSC on REITs and dividends on the site right now. theyson asks: Where do you see fuel cell industry such as efcx in the next month? chris_edmonds_tsc: Have no monthly idea -- but fuel cells are the future of the electricity and power biz. Ask Enron, ask Southern, ask Calpine. They all want a piece of the action. Canman169 asks: Is CSCO still a core holding? chris_edmonds_tsc: Yes - great company, still - don't jump on Monday until you know what direction the wind is blowing. Patience is key. iceman00_59714 asks: Do you see the Fed raising 25 basis points in May if the market continues downward? chris_edmonds_tsc: Great question -- I think Greenspan would lobby to wait!! But, that's a long way from now. The DOW could be at 13K by then! Canman169 asks: What is your opinion on COMS? chris_edmonds_tsc: Tough story -- don't know if I'd be there right now. Like my Palm Pilot though! choose_choices asks: If I get your drift...we are in for a bumpy, choppy several weeks....ergo..cash is King...sit tight, be selective, take a vacation,,,take a valium...take stock?? direction? chris_edmonds_tsc: I recommend Hawaii! chris_edmonds_tsc: Seriously, be careful, be prudent, and be patient. This will work itself out -- the bottom is closer than it was and probably the choppiness will continue until earnings flow in from big blue chips and are good -- I think they will be and we head higher. Selective buying with cash in hand is a pretty good strategy. chris_edmonds_tsc: At least enough cash to head to Hawaii!! :) laura_the_street: Thanks for joining us today Chris. chris_edmonds_tsc: Thanks guys! 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