midday03-09-00

TheStreet.com's MIDDAY UPDATE

March 9, 2000

http://www.thestreet.com

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Market Data as of 3/9/00, 1:21 PM ET:

o Dow Jones Industrial Average: 9,834.51 down 22.02, -0.22%
o Nasdaq Composite Index: 4,974.00 up 76.74, 1.57%
o S&P 500: 1,379.81 up 13.11, 0.96%
o TSC Internet: 1,315.84 up 27.83, 2.16%
o Russell 2000: 600.74 up 6.06, 1.02%
o 30-Year Treasury: 101 15/32 up 9/32, yield 6.119%

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In Today's Bulletin:

o Midday Musings: Nasdaq Makes Another Run at 5000 While Dow Languishes
o Herb on TheStreet: Is Eastman Kodak the Ultimate Old Economy Stock?

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Wrong! Tactics and Strategies: The Trading Goddess' 10 Commandments

Cramer still has these posted on his ILX terminal. So should you.

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Before taking the plunge, understand your own goals and check out the fund.

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Internet: Snowbird Dispatch: Cox Interactive Needs Long Haul to Master Internet Ad Market

From the Utah mountains comes word that local advertising is a tough business on the Internet.

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Midday Musings: Nasdaq Makes Another Run at 5000 While Dow Languishes

By Tara Murphy
Staff Reporter
3/9/00 1:27 PM ET The Dow needed a new drug by midsession, after its pharmaceutical components failed to rejuvenate a buying spree for the old-economy stocks. But the Nasdaq was getting a buzz from investors who continued to turn to the tech-laden index for their fix.

Major Indices INDEX CHANGE % VALUE Dow 10.24 -0.1% 9846.29 S&P 500 14.05 +1% 1380.75 Nasdaq 81.82 +1.7% 4979.08 Russell 2000 6.17 +1% 600.85 TSC Internet 28.77 +2.2% 1316.78 NOTE CHANGE PRICE YIELD 10-Year Treasury 14/32 101 7/32 6.332%

"The theme is the same: value vs. tech stocks, the old economy vs. the new economy," said James Maguire Jr., managing director at LaBranche. "The value stocks are holding their own, but we're not seeing a real rebound," referring to the Dow's early morning gains. "Selling generated more selling on Tuesday. Once the momentum starts going in a one direction, investors follow it. For the moment, the market is just "taking stock" in what we see here."

The drug stocks continued to follow through on yesterday's gains. Dow darling Merck (MRK Quote) along with Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY Quote) and Schering-Plough(SPH Quote) continued to tack on gains after analysts' positive comments.

"If the market discounts a Bush victory and discounts the Republicans keeping control of the House, I think pharmaceutical stocks will benefit," said Brian Gilmartin, portfolio manager at Trinity Asset Management. "Any potential prescription benefit would be less severe than in a Democratic-controlled Congress."

The American Exchange Pharmaceutical Index mounted 4%, while the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index fell 2.2%.

Lately, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 10 to 9846, with Hewlett-Packard (HWP Quote) attempting to strong-arm the index back into positive territory. H-P bounced 6 3/4, or 4.8%, to 147 5/8. But cyclicals like 3M (MMM Quote) and Coca-Cola (KO Quote) were just a little too heavy to lift.

Declining oil prices were doing their part to ease inflation and interest-rate fears, making some investors ready for value shopping. "If the market believes that the oil prices have peaked, you might start to seeing a premium on the stable, consistent earnings growers," said Gilmartin.

Maguire agreed that that oil prices had been causing a spill. "Oil prices are somewhat subdued, and that's a bit of a relief."

The American Stock Exchange Oil & Gas Index was falling 1.4%, with ExxonMobil (XOM Quote) dragging.

On the New York Stock Exchange, Deutsche Telekom(DT Quote), Qwest (Q Quote) and U S West (USW Quote) were showing strength after Deutsche launched separate bids for the two companies, totaling $100 billion.

The Nasdaq was in solid positive territory, up 82, or 1.7%, to 4979, just 21 points away from crossing the 5000 mark. It earlier traded as high as 4987.05. In Nasdaq trading, Network Solutions (NSOL Quote)and VeriSign (VRSN Quote) were soaring two days after their merger announcement.

"Nothing is denting techs' momentum," said Gilmartin. "You're starting to see recovery in Dell (DELL Quote) and Compaq (CPQ Quote), which have significant server business built into Microsoft's (MSFT Quote) Windows 2000."

The S&P 500 was up 14, or 1%, to 1381.

The small-cap Russell 2000 components had the index bouncing 6, or 1%, to 601. Its stocks have been stealing the spotlight from last year's winning tech-giants like Microsoft and Intel (INTC Quote).

Market Internals

Breadth was mixed on moderately heavy volume.

New York Stock Exchange: 1,380 advancers, 1,437 decliners, 674 million shares. 50 new 52-week highs, 129 new lows.

Nasdaq Stock Market: 2,222 advancers, 1,855 decliners, 1.2 billion shares. 233 new highs, 89 new lows.

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For a look at stocks in the midsession news, see Midday Movers, published separately.

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Herb on TheStreet: Is Eastman Kodak the Ultimate Old Economy Stock?

By Herb Greenberg
Senior Columnist
3/9/00 6:30 AM ET

Thursday Thud

A Kodak moment: If you believe in stock charts, Eastman Kodak (EK Quote), which has been restructuring itself for five years, looks like death. Charts hardly tell the whole story (despite what Gary B. Smith would have you believe), but many investors use them as jumping-off points for further research (a la Lashinsky).

So, what's the problem at Kodak, which a few months ago trumpeted that its fourth-quarter earnings had beat Wall Street estimates? (Never mind the tepid sales growth.)

Could it be that no matter how hard the company tries to keep up with the digitalization of the photo world, Kodak is about to get FedEx-ed (FDX Quote)? Could it be that no matter how much it tries to tie itself to the Internet with services designed to help upload pictures, it's about to get Xerox-ed (XRX Quote)? Both companies got whacked by the new economy when people started emailing documents rather than copying and sending them.

Kodak, short-sellers believe, is facing a similar squeeze as its old-world business (film) gets displaced by digital cameras. While Kodak has made an ambitious foray into digital, it doesn't appear to be gaining ground fast enough to fend off the competition.

According to PaineWebber, which recently cited numbers from NPD Intellect, Kodak's share of the digital-camera market -- a market that grew 63% last year -- fell to 13% from 17%. At the same time Sony's (SNE Quote) share rose to 47.2% from 42.3% in a market that accounted for 36% of all camera sales last year.

That's not all. In a report to clients yesterday, analyst Alex Henderson of Prudential says that the latest retail reports show that Kodak's film sales were flat year over year despite the market's 5% volume growth. What's more, Henderson reports, for the third straight month Kodak lost market share to Fuji (FUJIY Quote) and private brands. In fact, he adds, the whole 35-millimeter film market is slowing.

He doesn't say why, but the answer is obvious: digital.

A Kodak spokesman, however, says that the company itself expects consumer film sales to grow at an average rate of 4% per year through 2005, at which point they expect sales to level. He adds that sales data from places like NPD don't include the entire market. And he notes that Kodak's internal figures show that its digital-camera biz last year grew by 72%.

For example, he says, Kodak's own Web site, whose sales aren't counted by NPD, is Kodak's seventh-largest digital-camera distribution channel. (According to PC Data, however, its traffic ranks 1,829 among all Web sites.) In terms of digital-camera sales, "Kodak is No. 2 or No. 3, depending on whose data you use," the spokesman says. "Our intention is to be leading digital-camera manufacturers in terms of share. We know we need to be there."

So far, the trend is not Kodak's friend.

CFO follies: I knew something smelled rotten two weeks ago when Transaction Systems Architects (TSAI Quote), no stranger to this column, announced a new chief financial officer without saying what happened to the old guy. The company never returned my call to say where he went, but several analysts who had talked to the company said the old CFO had been named to head a group of companies that could possibly be spun out. (Another day in the life of a tire-kicking columnist.)

The story of Transaction Systems, as told by this column, was the story of a company that sold software that banks use to run their automatic-teller machines. The company hit the radar of short-sellers when it changed its revenue-recognition system in a way that allowed it to recognize revenue sooner than expected. Had it not made the switch, short-sellers alleged, the company wouldn't have made its numbers.

Lo and behold, at the end of December, Transaction warned that its fourth quarter would miss analysts' estimates because of Y2K delays. (Y2K delays discovered at year-end? You gotta be kidding ... or so I thought.) Y2K came and went and before long Transaction was talking up a new strategy aimed at unlocking shareholder value by spinning out these companies. The news caused Transaction's stock in recent weeks to more than double.

But there was that CFO issue: What happened to the old CFO? It's always worth asking questions when a CFO leaves, but it's never good when the company glosses over the departure without saying what happened to the old CFO.

Fast forward to late yesterday, after the market closed: Transaction issued a press release touting the formation of a new business unit. Down in the middle, in unrelated news, it says (oh, by the way) that the old CFO, Greg Duman, was resigning. Apparently he's joining a start-up. (Why didn't they say that in the first place?)

Could it be that the altered method of revenue recognition had faltered, and that as a result of the higher revenue, future comps will be harder to attain? If so, no wonder the company is scrambling to remake itself.

Help, I've been Seymoured: Look for my response later today to Jim Seymour, who Wednesday took swipes at this column.

Herb Greenberg writes daily for TheStreet.com. In keeping with TSC's editorial policy, he doesn't own or short individual stocks, though he owns stock in TheStreet.com. He also doesn't invest in hedge funds or other private investment partnerships. He welcomes your feedback at [e-mail]. Greenberg also writes a monthly column for Fortune.

Mark Martinez assisted with the reporting of this column.

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