If Sprint Bid Fails, BellSouth May Have Qwest Waiting in the Wings

BellSouth's (BLS) reported $72 billion Hail Mary overture for Sprint (FON) is a bold move from the last of the free-standing Baby Bells to avoid being left behind by the mergers of its siblings.

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The Atlanta-based Bell may still elbow out MCI WorldCom (WCOM) with a sweetened offer and capture the nation's third-largest long-distance carrier. However, analysts say that its chances of winning the bid are not looking too rosy and instead, BellSouth should be eyeing Qwest (QWST).

"BellSouth and Qwest are certainly inching closer together," said Tom Friedberg, an analyst with investment bankers Janco Partners in Denver. Friedberg has an accumulate on Qwest and has not participated in any underwriting with the companies.

Analysts note that BellSouth is concerned about its competitive position where all of its peers and major rivals are involved in multibillion-dollar mergers. Its management has said previously it is already large enough to compete with giants like AT&T (T) and MCI WorldCom -- but the bid for Sprint shows BellSouth has seen the future and it's not going solo.

Even if BellSouth had stayed on the sidelines, other Baby Bells have been active. The Bell Atlantic (BEL) and GTE (GTE) merger is imminent, and the SBC (SBC) and Ameritech (AIT) merger is due to be approved as early as next week. Suddenly, BellSouth faces stiff local competition from the merged companies that have vowed to enter markets outside their own territories.

Dialing Up In an age of telecom consolidation, BellSouth has been going it alone.

Source: BigCharts

Through three years of accelerated industry consolidations in the U.S., BellSouth, which offers Internet access, wireless and local phone service, has been going it alone. It has made one small departure from that plan: a $3.5 billion investment in April for a 10% stake in Qwest. That allowed BellSouth business customers in the Southeast to get local and Internet services through either company.

"BellSouth has been the most conservative and buttoned-downed of the Bells," Friedberg said. "But in a strategy where you have to bulk up, BellSouth needs to do something."

BellSouth's reported offer for Sprint is a "reactionary move, not one based on due diligence," said Michael Smith, chief analyst with Stratecast Partners, a division of Frost and Sullivan. "They were probably looking for expansion, and saw their opportunity starting to dwindle."

Officials for BellSouth, Sprint and MCI WorldCom declined to comment.

Analysts, including Smith, say Qwest is a better fit for several key reasons.

Buying Qwest would allow BellSouth to gain a formidable data network for Internet and business services. In addition, BellSouth could enter the growing Web-hosting business. And for good measure, a union of BellSouth's Latin American networks with Qwest's European and Asian networks would create a global network with few rivals, Smith said. Qwest could get access to BellSouth's local telephone lines, which is the key reason behind its pending merger with U S West (USW).

One major hitch: BellSouth cannot enter the long-distance market until it receives regulatory approval, and to date, none of the regional Bells has been given the nod. The approval hinges on a Bell's ability to demonstrate that its local markets are open to competition.

Bell Atlantic may soon become the first to gain such approval and provide the rest of the Bells with a regulatory road map to help quicken the process, says Robert Rosenberg, president of Insight Research, a Parsippany, N.J.-based consulting firm. Rosenberg consults with numerous telecommunications companies.

Though BellSouth's $77.6 billion market capitalization and $23.1 billion in annual revenue dwarfs Qwest's $23.8 billion market cap and $2.2 billion in revenues, the battle for who would control the merged entity could be epic. BellSouth chairman and CEO F. Duane Ackerman is not likely to cede control to Qwest chief Joe Nacchio, Stratecast's Smith says.

"From a visionary perspective, the Qwest team has demonstrated they have a good feel of what's happening in the market," Smith says. "If there are only a few alternatives for your survival, then the market tells you what needs to be done."

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