We Haven't Hit Bottom Yet

Spotting capitulation is usually a difficult game. Right now it's tougher than playing Three-Card Monte with a couple of street toughs. A true investible bottom has guys like me throwing in the towel as well as strategists and brokers. It has everyone buying puts and shorting.

A noncapitulation bottom is just guys like me talking bearish but staying invested and brokers saying, "I don't know if we are done going down, but I don't like the market. A noncapitulation bottom is when deals are postponed, and then when things look better the next day they are back on.

We don't have all of the signs of capitulation yet. That doesn't mean we can't have a rocking good couple of days. But we just haven't had the washout that I so much want before I commit big money. There are too many invested bears.

Some of you emailed me and said that judging by the "kick-him-when-he-is-down" piece that CNBC did about me, that they want to take the other side of my Net capitulation. Whoa. I am simply waiting for the exquisite moment to buy. Not sell. That I did awhile ago. I am currently short only two Net stocks, and neither would amount to a hill of beans on a bad DOT day.

At the bottom, people are pressing their bets and buying puts and totally out of the market. We are not there yet.