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Can Tesla Drive on After NJ Flap? Fuggedaboutit!

Stocks in this article: TSLA GM F

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- It's been a long strange trip for Tesla (TSLA), with several speed bumps. But the battery is about to die.

The latest: New Jersey, where Tesla will not be allowed to sell directly to consumers. This won't be the last salvo. For his part CEO Elon Musk is trying to go head to head with the establishment fighting for the status quo.

It's a waste of time. He would be better off working on the hyper loop...or a "Mr. Fusion" from Back to the Future fame.

Musk outlined a pathway to a 25% gross margin for Tesla in the coming fiscal year on the recent earnings call. Some have suggested that once sales in China charge up, that figure could grow to 30%. Dream on.

Gross margins of 30% in the auto industry are a fanciful wish that no one in their right mind would expect to last. It's a fact. Car manufacturers collect 6%-9% when selling to their dealer network. The dealer's action when sold to buyers is even less, about a third of that.

Gross margins on trucks are better than those on small sedans. The Model S is not an F-150. It seems doubtful people want the risk of selling a car worth $70,000 for a potential of earning 2-3% on their capital.

That's not a lot of margin. Current dealers can boost profits by customizing cars at at a vehicle assembly plant or at the dealer level, but the room for error is small which is why they don't need a genius billionaire messing with their system.

Many if not most dealership groups own several, if not dozens of dealerships, leaving them diversified across the space with lots of cars to sell overall. Remember that.

A recall at General Motors (GM)?, No problem, people head over to the Ford (F) dealer and pick up the slack. Ownership could not care less. It all goes into one big pocket.

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