Tech's collapse may have taught us a lesson, but this year's headlong rush into value funds shows we haven't learned it.
Last summer, tech and growth funds were starting to show some wear as tech stocks sagged. Returns slumped, but the funds remained bestsellers, thanks to the buy-the-dips crowd. Meanwhile, value funds kept bleeding assets.
A year later, the tide has turned: The average tech fund has lost 55% of its value. Now, all the bestselling funds are lower-octane bond and tech-light value funds.
But the massive shift suggests that investors who once overplayed tech now might be placing too many chips on value funds. Rather than diversifying into a stable value-growth balance, they continue to chase returns. In doing so, they risk being blindsided again whenever the market's wind shifts.
Perhaps nothing so starkly illustrates these shifting tastes than comparing the top-five selling funds halfway through this year with those from the first half of 2000.
Last year the list was all growth funds, including two from
Janus (
(JAWWX Quote - Cramer on JAWWX - Stock Picks)Worldwide and
(JAENX Quote - Cramer on JAENX - Stock Picks)Enterprise) and two from
Fidelity (
(FDGRX Quote - Cramer on FDGRX - Stock Picks)Growth Company and
(FDEGX Quote - Cramer on FDEGX - Stock Picks)Aggressive Growth).
This year' s list has two bond funds, the top-selling
Pimco (PTTAX Quote - Cramer on PTTAX - Stock Picks)Total Return fund and the
Vanguard (VBMFX Quote - Cramer on VBMFX - Stock Picks)Total Bond Market Index fund. The only growth fund is a holdover from 2000's faves: the
(AGTHX Quote - Cramer on AGTHX - Stock Picks)Growth Fund of America. That fund, the first entrant into our
Ima Winner Fund Club, has lost 14.8% over the past year, but that trounces more than 90% of its peers and beats the S&P 500
.
The other two stock funds on the list are the big-cap value
Davis (NYVTX Quote - Cramer on NYVTX - Stock Picks)New York Venture fund and the large-cap blend
Fidelity (FDGFX Quote - Cramer on FDGFX - Stock Picks)Dividend Growth fund. Each follows a conservative strategy and had just 17% of its assets in tech stocks at the end of the first quarter -- a below-market weighting at the time.
Indeed, this year's bestsellers, which have taken in $16 billion of stock funds' $60 billion in net sales this year, mark an about-face from a year earlier. In the first half of last year just one value fund,
(JSVAX Quote - Cramer on JSVAX - Stock Picks)Janus Strategic Value, cracked the top-20 sellers; that probably had more to do with growth titan Janus' sales momentum than investors' interest in bargain-hunting funds. This year, aside from the Growth Fund of America, just two growth funds are among the top 20:
(MIGFX Quote - Cramer on MIGFX - Stock Picks)MFS Massachusetts Investors Growth and
(SHRAX Quote - Cramer on SHRAX - Stock Picks)Smith Barney Aggressive Growth.
Both lists are dominated by funds that beat the S&P 500 over the past 12 months. A fund's relative performance -- its ranking vs. its peers -- seems less important. For instance, the Davis New York Venture fund's 8.5% loss over the past year trails nearly 90% of its big-cap value peers, but beats the market. And the Fidelity Growth Company beats its peers over the past one and three years, but its 30.5% loss over the past year nearly doubles the market's fall.
The makeup of these lists -- all growth last year, all value this time around -- tells us that many folks are investing in funds that are going up now, rather than spreading their money among growth and value styles (though more than $3.5 billion has flowed into Vanguard's broad
(VFINX Quote - Cramer on VFINX - Stock Picks)500 Index and
(VTSMX Quote - Cramer on VTSMX - Stock Picks)Total Stock Market funds).
The idea with diversification or asset allocation is typically to buy shares of solid funds in myriad styles, but as usual the bestsellers are a fairly homogeneous bunch. It's hardly surprising to see fund investors turn away from growth funds since most have fallen hard over the past year. Consider that since the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite
peaked on March 10, 2000, the
(FDEGX Quote - Cramer on FDEGX - Stock Picks)Fidelity Aggressive Growth fund has fallen a stunning 71%, according to Baseline/Thomson Financial.
No doubt losses like those are partly why cash flows to stock funds are half what they were last year. Net cash flows to stock funds in the first six months of this year were $60.5 billion, compared with $124 billion over the same period last year, according to Boston fund consultancy Financial Research Corp.
Still, methodically and thoughtfully building a portfolio with exposure to growth, value and bond funds makes more sense than trying to time one style's hot streak.
Here's a look at how you might spread your money among small-, mid- and large-cap growth or value funds to build a diversified portfolio -- and a shortlist of funds we like in each category.
Ian McDonald
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