All Star Portfolios: Still Swinging at Midseason (Cont'd)
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Mr. P's Theory Pays Off
The suggestion from wily hedge fund manager Mr. P. on Jan. 10 ("
I'll let the original 10 ride, but I will also track this new gang of 12. Mr. P is short-term bearish for traders, but long-term bullish -- as he thinks that even if the market tanks over the summer, you're likely to still be happy in a decade if you salt away shares of bruised but proven winners. He says his original view, first uttered in January, is still true: "These are the levels at which the smart money buys."
|Name||10-Year EPS growth %||% Change 12 Mos.*||Market Cap (in billions)|
|Sun Microsystems (SUNW)||30.61||-64.2||51 .0|
|Silicon Valley Banc (SIVB)||23.36||-49.6||1.1|
|Charles Schwab (SCH)||43.32||-51.0||22.0|
|Applied Materials (AMAT)||43.92||-45.8||40.0|
We've Learned to Love RejectionMy favorite story of the year came on Feb. 14, when I showed that Standard & Poor's had ripped more than two dozen able-bodied value stocks out of its benchmark index during 2000 and replaced them willy-nilly with growth stocks ("
Calendar Streak ContinuesMy portfolios of stocks that do well in individual months have scored solid gains this year, too. Called HiMARQ -- for "historical monthly average return quotient" -- they beat the market handily in every month except February. Top picks included Ameristar Casinos (ASCA) in April, which is up 137%; McNaughton Apparel (MAGI) in April, up 45%; Barnes & Noble (BKS) in March, up 46%; Oracle (ORCL) in June, up 31%; and MedImmune (MEDI) in June, up 21%. Overall, I figure the HiMARQs are up 7.1% for the year. Here are the July prospects:
|Stock||Avg. July gain||# up Julys||# down Julys|
|Taro Pharmaceutical (TARO)"||8.4||6||1|
|First Virginia Banks (FVB)||3.9||11||4|
The 2001 SuperModelsHey, remember the supermodels? Flare-Out Growth, MVP Growth, the Redwoods and all those action-comic superheroes from my columns and books in 1998 and 1999? On my birthday in late February, I dove into the icy gloom of the market to create a 20-stock SuperModels portfolio ("
GARP and SleepersSpeaking of blasts from the past, my GARP and Sleepers portfolio of April 17 also fared fairly well, with a couple of nasty exceptions ("
Batting PracticeTurning now to ideas presented in the column that weren't strictly models, we have: Swings. My three swing-trading stocks on April 25 are up 21.7% collectively since, vs. a 0.5% advance in the market. They were led by an 84% advance in Sonic Automotive (SAH). First Health Group (FHCC) hung in with a 5% advance and Arch Coal (ACI) fell 24%. Plants. Just after the second bottom of the market in early April, I passed along a money manager's comments that bear markets should be known as the "planting season," while bull markets should be called the "harvesting season." The seven stocks mentioned favorably are ready for reaping, with a 22% advance vs. a 6% hike in the market. Top names were Perot Systems (PER), up 83.9%; OrthoLogic (OLGC), up 31.6%; and Syntel (SYNT), up 27%. Orphans. A day after the second bottom of the market in early April, I suggested that the problem with many old favorites was that they had been orphaned by growth-stock managers but were not cheap enough yet for the value folks ("
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