Think It's Time to Overweight Tech Funds? Think Again

Today, the case for overweighting tech in your portfolio is looking as strong as the case for walking through hell in a gasoline suit.

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Yes, the situation is so dire that scribblers like myself are borrowing phrases from Charlie Hustle. The "can't miss" tech sector's continuing losses are jaw-dropping. They're so painful that no doubt many will say the sector must be bottoming. But before entertaining the idea of raising your tech exposure, keep in mind that thanks to the mercurial sector's stunning run in the late 1990s, it's already a big part of a diversified portfolio. Consider this: At one time within the past decade, tech was a mere 2.7% of the S&P 500. Long story short, tech stocks and the formerly top-selling funds that focus on them are taking a beating of historic proportions and matching the S&P 500's tech stake is hardly a modest helping of the ravaged sector.

Ravaged, indeed. The average tech fund fell more than 17% last month, after falling nearly 28% in February. The two months are among the tech-fund category's five worst in the past 20 years, according to Morningstar. In fact, six of the category's 10 worst months since 1981 have come in the past year.

Months of Dubious Distinction Here are the worst months for the average tech fund. Six of the 10 have come in the past year
Month	Avg. Tech Fund's Loss
Oct. 1987	-28.9%
Feb. 2001	-27.9
Nov. 2000	-27
Aug. 1998	-20.1
March 2001	-17.2
April 2000	-12.6
Aug. 1990	-12.5
May 2000	-12.1
Oct. 2000	-11.9
Nov. 1987	-10.4
Source: Morningstar.

Over the past year, the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite is down more than 63.4% and the average tech fund has fallen a breathtaking 63%. Let's think about this in more realistic terms. If you'd invested $10,000 at the end of last February in the $9.7 billion (PRSCX)T. Rowe Price Science & Technology fund, the nation's biggest tech fund, it would be down to about $5,440 a year later, according to Morningstar.

Less Than Half the Funds They Used to Be The average tech fund is down a whopping 63% over the past 12 months

Source: Morningstar. Returns through April 3.

Almost 20 tech funds have already lost more than half their value so far this year. In fact, a look at the category's leaders just confirms how dreary things are. Turns out the only way to make money was to either bet against the tech stocks or to simply invest elsewhere, contrary to having a tech-fund label.

For instance, the chart-topping Potomac Internet/Short fund, up 184% over the past 12 months, sells Net stocks short, essentially profiting when their share prices fall. Then there's the (WWWEX)Kinetics Internet Emerging Growth, (WWWFX)Kinetics Internet and (WWWIX)Kinetics Internet Infrastructure funds, which all had less than half their money in "tech" stocks, according to their most recent portfolio report to Morningstar. In fact, the only traditional tech fund that's holding up well is the broker-sold (SLMCX)Seligman Communications & Information fund, which is down 15.5% this year and is run by veteran manager Paul Wick.

At the bottom of the splintered tech-fund barrel, we find funds like (BTECX)Berkshire Technology and (VWTKX)Van Wagoner Technology with bets on Net-centric stocks that have taken a particularly brutal beating this year like Juniper Networks(JNPR) (down 75.7%), Ariba(ARBA) (down 91.7%), Exodus Communications(EXDS) (down 63.9%), Applied Micro Circuits (AMCC) (down 83.3%) and i2 Technologies(ITWO) (down 75.2%).

The 'Best' The average tech fund is down almost 37% already this year, so you knew this wouldn't be a pretty list
Top Five
Fund	YTD Return
Potomac Internet/Short	54.1%
(WWWEX)Kinetics Internet Emerging Growth	-1.9
(MATFX)Matthews Asian Technology	-4.3
(WWWFX)Kinetics Internet	-8.7
(WWWIX)Kinetics Internet Infrastructure	-10.7
Bottom Five
(BTECX)Berkshire Technology	-63%
(VWTKX)Van Wagoner Technology	-62.9
(BTBAX)Amerindo Internet B2B	-62.9
(DTYBX)Delaware Technology & Innovation	-58.2
(TEFQX)Firsthand e-Commerce	-57.6T
Source: Morningstar. Returns through April 3.

This kind of drubbing is so harsh that no doubt many are coming around to the "it can't get much worse" or "buy on the dips" mantras. This is instinctive. After all, the average tech fund's loss last year snapped a 15-year streak of annual gains. It does, however, ignore the fact that the average growth fund's some 40% stake in tech stocks is already about double the sectors' weighting in the S&P 500. Because growth funds and tech funds took in record billions during the past two years, nary an investor is tech-starved.

And even if you've nobly built a diversified portfolio, with an S&P 500-tracking index fund, you're still sitting with a lot of tech exposure. Consider that due to the sector's consistent gains in the 1990s, its weighting in the (VFINX)Vanguard 500 Index fund has risen from 2.7% at the end of 1992 to more than 25% at the end of January.

Still Overweight? Over the past 10 years or so, the Vanguard 500 Index fund's tech stake has gotten almost 10 times bigger
Year	Tech Weighting
1992	2.7%
1993	10.4
1994	9.2
1995	8.3
1996	12.3
1997	12
1998	15.6
1999	23.9
2000	21.3
YTD	25.2
Source: Morningstar. YTD figure through Jan. 31.

The sector's sagging performance is whittling it down now. Tech stocks currently make up about 18% of the index, according to S&P's Web site. That still sounds like a lot, or at least enough, doesn't it?

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