Who's to Say Lucent Survives?

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If the drive industry analog holds, then we're going to get a bottom in the Cisco(CSCO Quote - Cramer on CSCO - Stock Picks)-Nortel(NT Quote - Cramer on NT - Stock Picks) world when one of the big players folds. This weekend, The Financial Times reported that Lucent (LU Quote - Cramer on LU - Stock Picks) is tapping its credit line and has probably burned through its cash. Maybe Cisco and Nortel will stop going down when Lucent succumbs.

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I know, I know, that seems almost inconceivable, but these days, when large clients of these telecom providers are dropping like flies, and more are expected to do so imminently, who's to say that Lucent will survive? Where is that written?

As in the drive business, we have way too much capacity in the telecom equipment world. There are simply too many companies making too much equipment for too many phone companies.

People trying to catch the bottom in Nortel and Cisco might be wrong in thinking that they'll have to see a turn from those companies.

Maybe they'll see a turn when Lucent burns through its credit line and ceases to be a factor in the industry.