Report Card: Peter Oakes

Peter Oakes Merrill Lynch
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1st Place Restaurants

Bio

B.A., Miami University; M.B.A., The Ohio State University. Prior to joining Merrill Lynch, Oakes was an analyst/portfolio manager with the Public Employees of Ohio.

Industry Outlook and Style

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Despite the drop in consumer confidence and the accompanying falloff in spending, Peter Oakes doesn't expect most restaurant chains to see a decline in sales any time soon.

In fact, he says, "Supply/demand remains very healthy, and as a result we're finding better-positioned operators are proving more resilient as far as sales performance, and this has contributed to the group being reclassified as defensive." The industry has evolved, he explains, as the sector experienced its own version of a recession in the mid-1990s, resulting in a halt in supply growth over the last four years. In addition, there has been an ongoing market share shift from grocery stores to restaurants as busy Americans let someone else do the cooking.

This trend has contributed to the popularity of casual dining, as consumers increasingly view dining out as routine rather than an occasional luxury. "Our bottom line is that consumers are going to have to feel considerably more pain before they structurally change their lifestyle," Oakes says. So while he views the group as "not totally immune from a consumer pullback," he believes it will weather an economic slowdown better than most think it will.

His top pick in the group is Outback Steakhouse(OSI - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), which he says is his only buy recommendation in the sector. (Merrill Lynch has not done investment banking for Outback.)

Stock Pick

Favorite stock for next 12 months:
Outback Steakhouse

Comment:
"Superior business model, good execution and consistency. It's a beneficiary of the casual dining trend. We classify them as a 'have' with a 'have-not' valuation."


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Which stock do you like best? Oakes: Outback Steakhouse Buckley: Applebee's