Making Sense of March Madness

March Madness is finally here. Championship week is the week that gives almost every NCAA Division I basketball team a chance to make it to the national championship via conference tournaments.

And those tournaments offer unique handicapping opportunities because of the unusual number of games a team must play in a short period. Teams that are already guaranteed a spot in the final NCAA tournament by virtue of their won-loss records have less incentive in these conference tournaments than opponents in desperate need of a victory to assure an invitation.

Depth is a critical factor in handicapping these games. Teams that have a bye in the first round hold a huge advantage. To handicap successfully, check out the box scores. Look for how many minutes the five key players on each team have played. Teams that have enough good substitutes to permit the starters to play fewer than 30 minutes a game have a big advantage in the conference tournaments.

Here are my special tournament-edition power ratings for each of the teams playing in conference tournaments:

How Do They Match Up? Power ratings of all teams playing in NCAA conference tournaments.
BIG EAST
Team	Power Rating
Syracuse	86
St. John's	85 + 2 (home court)
Connecticut	85
Miami	84
Seton Hall	83
Notre Dame	89
Villanova	84
Rutgers	81
Georgetown	89
West VirginiaT	80
Pittsburgh	81
Providence	89
Boston College	90
ATLANTIC 10
Team	Power Rating
Temple	88
Dayton	84
St. Bonaventure	83
Xavier	89
Massachusetts	83
George Washington	81
St. Joseph's	89 +1
Fordham	79
LaSalle	80 +1
Duquesne	74
Rhode Island	73
CONFERENCE USA
Team	Power Rating
Cincinnati	91
Louisville	80
DePaul	82
UNC Charlotte	88
Marquette	83
South Florida	85
St. Louis	84
Tulane	73
Southern Miss	85
Memphis	85 + 3
UAB	81
Houston	76
BIG 12
Team	Power Rating
Oklahoma State	84
Iowa State	92
Texas	87
Oklahoma	85
Kansas	95 +2
Missouri	87 +2
Colorado	83
Texas Tech	75
Baylor	81
Nebraska	83
Kansas State	77
Texas A&M	76
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
Team	Power Rating
Florida	94
Tennessee	90
LSU	82
Kentucky	94
Vanderbilt	83
Auburn	84
Arkansas	90
South Carolina	84
Mississippi	87
Mississippi State	87
Alabama	87
Georgia	86
BIG 10
Team	Power Rating
Michigan State	99
Illinois	97
Ohio State	88
Indiana	89
Purdue	83
Wisconsin	89
Penn State	84
Iowa	82
Michigan	79
Minnesota	82
Northwestern	76
BIG WEST
Team	Power Rating
Long Beach State	79
Utah State	86
Boise State	77
Cal-Santa Barbara	78
Pacific	79
Cal-Irvine	81 +1
Cal-Fullerton	68 +1
Cal Poly SLO	72
MOUNTAIN WEST
Team	Power Rating
Utah	86
Wyoming	85
New Mexico	82
Brigham Young	85
Colorado State	82
Air Force	73
San Diego State	78
WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
Team	Power Rating
Tulsa	86 +4
Fresno State	89
SMU	84
San Jose State	78
UTEP	83
TCU	84
Hawaii	79
Rice	75
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE
Team	Power Rating
Duke	101
Maryland	95
North Carolina	95
Wake Forest	91
North Carolina St.	84
Virginia	92
Georgia Tech	84
Florida State	79
Clemson	77

The Big Dance

Everyone enjoys watching the Sunday tournament selection show to see who gets invited to the Big Dance.

My list of power ratings for the top teams in the country follows. Most of these teams will make it into the NCAA tournament. The teams at the bottom of the list with power ratings of 86 or 87 can improve their status by playing well in the conference tournament.

Georgia is a most unique team this year with a 16-13 regular-season record but a good power rating. If the Bulldogs can make it to the semifinals of the Southeastern Conference tournament they will probably get an invitation to the Big Dance.

This chart can also be used to determine my theoretical point spreads when teams match up in the tournament. Power ratings should be compared, and the team with the higher power rating should be a favorite by the difference between those ratings.

Click here for the power ratings.

Now, let's look at how teams that are underdogs have done in conference tournaments over the last five years.

Conference Tournaments --Underdogs vs. Favorites Against the Spread
Year	First Round	Quarterfinals	Semifinals	Finals
1996	7-12-1	18-27	12-12	9-3
1997	11-18	17-26	13-9	3-8
1998	20-13	22-24-1	9-15	5-7
1999	14-18	20-27	14-10	5-7
2000	16-18-1	31-27-2	18-13	7-9
Totals	68-79-2	108-131-3	66-59	29-34

Underdogs do not do particularly well in these conference tournaments, although they perform at just about a .500 level in the semifinals and finals.

The location of the conference tournament also offers interesting betting angles. Historically, when one of the conference teams hosts a tournament, the host has an advantage in the first two rounds.

That edge disappears as the other teams get acclimated to the court, however. Last year, though, the home teams performed poorly against the spread in each round except the finals. Whether this is a reversal of the longer-term trend is something I will continue to monitor.

Conference Tournaments -- Home vs. Visitors Against the Spread
Year	First Round	Quarterfinals	Semifinals	Finals
1996	4-3	10-10	3-5	1-5
1997	6-4	9-7	4-2	1-1
1998	7-4	7-9	5-6	5-0
1999	5-2	11-5	4-4	1-3
2000	3-6	6-8	3-6	5-1
Totals	25-19	43-39	19-23	13-10

Does revenge play any part in conference tournaments? Yes and no. A favorite that has lost straight up to its opponent during the regular season has covered the spread at a rate of 59 % in the last four years.

However, favorites who have lost twice to their opponent during the regular season only cover the spread 41% of the time. Underdogs who try to avenge a single regular-season defeat only cover at a 46% rate, while underdogs who try to avenge two regular-season losses cover the spread 45% of the time.

Playing the Revenge Motive Favorites who lost twice in the regular season to their opponent covered the spread in the conference tournament only 41% of the time.
Year	Single Revenge Favorite	Double Revenge Favorite	Single Revenge Underdog	Double Revenged Underdog
1996	11-11	5-3	15-22-1	17-18
1997	15-8	3-6	15-26	12-15
1998	15-7	2-4	26-21-1	14-21
1999	9-10-1	4-7	19-28	10-20
2000	21-13	2-3	31-26-2	25-22-1RT
Totals	71-49-1	16-23	106-123-4	78-96-1

We will be back next Wednesday with a special NCAA tournament edition of Vegas Vice, where I will discuss the teams I believe have a chance to make it to the Sweet Sixteen.

See you then.

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