Reviewing the Bestseller List
How could so many people have been so wrong last year?
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According to Boston fund-tracker Financial Research (FRC), the five funds that got the highest inflows last year were big-cap growth fare that rode tech and telecom stocks to an average 80% gain in 1999, lapping the S&P 500 nearly four times. Then last year's tech and telecom meltdown hit these funds and their shareholders where it hurts: in the wallet. The situation merits a look because more than 20 cents of every dollar invested in funds last year went into these five funds, only one of which isn't sagging. It's also intriguing because it shows investor's conviction in the "buy on the dips" mantra in stark relief.
"Maybe even until the end of last year investors thought the tech selloff was just going to be another passing event," says Morningstar senior fund analyst Scott Cooley. "The cash flows reflected that, with these funds getting money while [less aggressive] value funds didn't start to get money until this year."
On average, these five funds have more than 46% of their money in tech stocks, about double the mercurial sector's weighting in the S&P 500. That really propelled these funds before last year, as they all beat their average peer and the S&P 500 over the past three years, according to Morningstar. But over the nearer term, they took a beating as that big tech stake became a burden when the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite fell almost 40% in 2000. Only American Funds' broker-sold $36.1 billion (AGTHX)Growth Fund of America, which is less aggressive than its fellow bestsellers, managed to ride out the storm better than its large-cap growth peers.| Top-Five? Of the last year's five best-selling funds, only the Growth Fund of America is still beating its peers and the S&P 500 over the past 12 months | |||
| Big- Cap Growth Funds | |||
| Fund | YTD Return | 1-Year Return | 3-Year Return |
| (FDGRX)Fidelity Growth Company | -8.5 | -26.6 | 22.7 |
| (AGTHX)Growth Fund of America | 0.2 | 0.7 | 25 |
| (FDEGX)Fidelity Aggressive Growth | -7.9 | -38.5 | 22.7 |
| (ACEGX)Van Kampen Emerging Growth | -7.4 | -29.7 | 28.7 |
| Avg. Big-Cap Growth fund | -3.9 | -17.6 | 12.8 |
| S&P 500 | 0 | -3.8 | 10.4 |
| Global Fund | |||
| Fund | YTD Return | 1-Year Return | 3-Year Return |
| (JAWWX)Janus Worldwide | -2.9 | -25.7 | 16 |
| Avg. Global fund | 2.2 | -13.2 | 8.7 |
| S&P 500 | 0 | -3.8 | 10.4 |
| Source: Morningstar. Returns through Feb. 14. | |||
| Best Seller List | |
| Fund | Return Since Nasdaq Peak |
| (FDGRX)Fidelity Growth Company | -43.2 |
| (AGTHX)Growth Fund of America | -20.6 |
| (JAWWX)Janus Worldwide | -38.3 |
| (FDEGX)Fidelity Aggressive Growth | -55.1 |
| (ACEGX)Van Kampen Emerging Growth | -54.6 |
| S&P 500 | -5.7 |
| Source: Morningstar | |
$34 billion (JAWWX)Worldwide fund took in more than $7 billion in fresh cash last year, even though it closed to new investors in May. In looking at these funds, the clear star is the Growth Fund of America, which raked in more than $8.8 billion last year. During the past six months TSC has looked at the weatherproof nature of both
the fund and the
Los Angeles firm. The team-managed fund does fish for stocks of fast-growing companies, but takes a more price-sensitive approach than its competitors. That might sound like a tepid strategy, but it helps the fund hold up better than its peers in tough times. It hasn't been a drag on returns either. The fund beats some 90% of its peers and the S&P 500 over the past one-, three-, five- and 10-year periods, according to Morningstar. The top-selling $30 billion (FDGRX)Fidelity Growth Company, which took in more than $9 billion last year, and the Janus Worldwide fund were both hurt by sector bets that didn't pan out. The Fido fund managed to post a solid 7.5% gain last year thanks to a 20% allocation to health care stocks, which led the market last year. This year, however, the American Stock Exchange Pharmaceutical Index is down more than 7% and last year's saving grace appears to be hurting the fund. Like most Janus funds, the Janus Worldwide fund had most of its assets in tech and telecom stocks that sank in 2000. Despite a tough 2000, that's probably no reason to dump either fund. Steven Wymer took over the Fidelity fund at the start of 1997, and the fund's 23.3% three-year annualized return beats the S&P 500 and more than 90% of its peers. As for the Janus fund, co-managers Helen Young Hayes and Laurence Chang are tough to knock. Last year's tumble broke a streak of six straight years in which the fund beat its peers. Its 19.4% five-year annualized return beats the S&P 500 and 95% of its peers, according to Morningstar. Investors might have some questions about the broker-sold $15.8 billion (ACEGX)Van Kampen Emerging Growth fund, which took in $5.5 billion last year, and the no-load $15.5 billion (FDEGX)Fidelity Aggressive Growth fund, which pocketed $6.4 billion. Thanks to a sterling long-term track record, the Van Kampen fund has drawn a mountain of cash, making it tough for manager Gary Lewis, who runs three funds, to build significant positions in small- or mid-cap "emerging growth" companies. If you bought the fund as a small- or mid-cap investment, you should consider that the fund had more than 85% of its assets in big-cap stocks at the end of October, according to the fund's most recent portfolio report to Morningstar. The Fidelity Aggressive Growth fund is raising a lot of questions these days, too. Last year on Valentine's Day, highly regarded manager
Erin Sullivan bolted to start her own money management firm. Robert Bertelson took the reins and things haven't gone well. At the end of the year, Bertelson had half the fund's assets in tech stocks and is responsible for losing more than 30% over the past 12 months, which trails 97% of his peers, according to Morningstar. The fund's ability to draw assets as it sputtered under a new manager illustrates the time it takes for investors to
notice a fund's instability. They seem to have realized it, though; the fund was in net redemptions to the tune of $44 million in December, according to FRC. The bottom line is that we know these funds took in a slew of money last year; now it's time to figure out if they deserve to keep it. If you own the Growth Fund of America, the answer is a resounding yes, and it's tough to dump Fidelity Growth Company or Janus Worldwide for taking lumps in a year when they stuck to their racy styles. If you own Van Kampen Emerging Growth or Fidelity Aggressive Growth, however, you're right to be asking some tough questions.
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