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Cramer: Why I'm Patient Now

Stock quotes in this article: KING, DE, ZNGA, AGCO, ESV, RIG, SDRL, JPM

NEW YORK (Real Money) – Sometimes sentiment isn't enough to make a turn. Sometimes, just betting that everyone else is negative isn't enough. Something positive has to happen, too.

We saw this come into play twice on Wednesday, first with King Digital (KING) and then second with Deere (DE). Going into King Digital, I was struck by what seemed to be a uniformity of thought that the sentiment toward King was too negative, and so the company's stock might bounce no matter what. But then it reported, and the numbers for the maker of Candy Crush were awful and the outlook worse. The darned thing is now down about 40% from where it came public.

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Sentiment doesn't help when you company relies on one franchise that is getting long in the tooth. Go ask the people at Zynga (ZNGA), who brought you Farmville and couldn't get beyond it even with the Words and OMG Pop franchises in tow. How many times could you have said "this selling is way overdone, it just can't be this bad"? But it is.

Same exact thing happened with Deere & Co. While only a handful of analysts were bullish going into the quarter, there was an underlying sentiment that this stock, down about 6% for the year going in, had lagged so far behind the market that, well, how bad could it get?

As someone who had just interviewed the CEO of Deere's competitor AGCO (AGCO), I know the answer: it could be real bad. And it was. Why should it have turned, when it's directly competitive in all of the tough markets with AGCO, and AGCO's not losing any market share?

I find the dichotomy mystifying.

Now, I do know that you can occasionally catch bottoms in stocks when things are bad, but that doesn't happen until every single element of hope has been disbanded.

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