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Relieved? Stocks Aren't Out of the Bear's Woods Yet

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Friday saw the strong intraday turn to the upside in the stock indexes that I noted Thursday.

The DJIA closed up 185.66 points at 16553.93 and the S&P 500 had a better than 1% move higher, up 22.02 points to close at 1931.59. The Nasdaq was higher by 35.93 to close at 4370.89 and the Russell 2000 index was higher by 11.59 to finish at 1131.35.

Before everyone gets to giddy and declares the stock correction over, I will caution traders and investors once again that the higher move on Friday lacked the upside volume that is necessary to overcome the down days. The S&P 500 Trust Series ETF (SPY) volume came in at 112.5 million shares. The volume was higher than most up days, but substantially less than the down days.

This is called volume accelerating on down days and decelerating on up days. Even with the strong move higher on Friday, the DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 are still in "Trend Bearish" territory.

The only condition that was alleviated in the markets on Friday was the oversold signal that I wrote about in Thursday's article.

On Friday, the Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) closed slightly down on the day after being up most of the day. The TLT is up 14% year to date. Again, this is a sign of a growth slowing. Most Wall Street pundits will tell you that it has been a flight to quality as the reason bonds have been so strong in 2014. That is flat-out wrong.

As growth slows, net interest margins at banks compress and equity market multiples do also. At the same time you will see multiple expansion on long-term Treasury bonds.

There is a new era in the stock market. The old Wall Street models simply do not work, the same as the Fed models. They are wrong.

Thus, as traders, we can either evolve or continue to languish using the old models. Which side would you like to be on?  At we choose to evolve.

The game plan for next week is a bit unsettled. I can certainly see the market head higher from the underside within a bearish trend. However, I remain cautious and will use continued upside to trade stocks with a very short-term horizon.

By the look of the closing indicators I fully expect the stock indexes to roll over to the downside within the first 20 minutes of trading. The indexes closed with an extremely overbought signal. Do not chase the market open on Monday.

On Friday, I added to my Popular (BPOP) as the stock continued to have an extraordinarily oversold signal. I am still long my Coca-Cola (KO) and Intel (INTC).

At the time of publication, the author was long BPOP, KO and INTC, although positions may change at any time.

This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff.

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