There was another impact that I didn't think about until I read a poll commissioned by TheStreet.com that said 36% of people are now afraid to fly internationally since MH17. We have had these scares before, as planes have been bombed or have been hijacked and used as bombs, and they have led to a temporary cessation in flying.
Normally, the airline stocks are so horrible that few bothered with them anyway. That's no longer the case. They have become market leaders. They rallied after MH17, no doubt in conjunction with good earnings reports. Now they are rolling over and I think that's because of fear of flying, however temporary it might be, coupled with a commensurate increase in insurance costs. Cutting numbers on airlines.
Finally, the stock market got it wrong because of the pundits' endless obsession with the Federal Reserve. There's plenty of money sloshing around that's betting the Fed is behind the curve, so stocks will go down. But stocks go down because of profit peaks and I think the combination of worries about Ukraine and Israel coupled with a potential slowdown in Europe are the real drivers. The dollar's been a rocket ship all month and it only strengthened after MH17. A strong dollar is no friend of American business. Nor has it been a friend of oil, which is plummeting.
Who is obsessed with the Fed? It's the same cottage industry as always, the Free Marketeers and the people who make a craft of Fed watching.Sorry, but these ideologues and professional Fed watchers better cast their eyes a little more toward Europe because that's where the profit erosion is and I think MH17 won't be a "bit of a game changer," it's the Rubicon that no one wanted crossed, but certainly looks like it has been. Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, had no positions in stocks mentioned.
Editor's Note: This article was originally published at 6:07 a.m. EDT on Real Money on Aug. 4.
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